CFTC Roundtable Exposes Regulatory Rift Over Prediction-Market Risks

Prediction-market executives clashed Thursday (Aug. 20) over how regulators should police manipulation and insider trading, exposing a widening divide between established derivatives exchanges and newer event-contract platforms.

The confrontation occurred during a Commodity Futures Trading Commission Innovation Advisory Committee meeting in Washington, where executives from traditional finance, crypto and prediction-market companies debated whether existing derivatives regulations are adequate for contracts tied to sports, elections and other real-world events.

CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said he was “a lot concerned” about the integrity of some prediction markets, arguing that certain contracts may be vulnerable to manipulation or trading by people with privileged information.

“We’re not a bunch of carnival barkers at a circus,” Duffy said, defending the compliance standards applied to CME, the world’s largest futures exchange by trading volume. “We are running the most envious markets in the world in the United States of America.”

Duffy criticized what he viewed as a regulatory imbalance between established exchanges and prediction-market startups. He said CME’s proposed contracts related to computing capacity remained under regulatory review while platforms such as Kalshi could use the CFTC’s self-certification process to list a wide range of event contracts.

He also mocked the economic significance of some Kalshi offerings, including a contract tied to Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Kalshi Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara countered by challenging CME’s own record.

“Has CME ever had any issues with any market manipulation, any issues ever in its history?” Lara asked.

Duffy responded that CME had more employees in its regulatory department than Kalshi had in its entire company. Lara replied that CME might need to “learn a bit about efficiency,” prompting Duffy to suggest Kalshi should “learn about credible markets.”

Beyond the personal barbs, the exchange highlighted a consequential regulatory disagreement. Duffy’s position suggests that event contracts may require more intensive review before they reach the market, particularly when an individual participant or insider could affect the outcome. Lara argued that manipulation is not unique to prediction markets and that regulated platforms provide the surveillance and enforcement mechanisms needed to identify misconduct.

“Every market has risk and every nascent market will have risks as well,” Lara said. “I think the point of having regulation is that you find these issues, you address these issues, and there’s a way to address them in a correct way.”

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins urged participants to stop disparaging competitors, saying attacks on individual business models did not advance the regulatory discussion.

The debate comes as the CFTC considers rules addressing which event contracts may be offered and what safeguards exchanges must employ. Federally registered markets are already required to ensure that contracts are not readily susceptible to manipulation, monitor trading and enforce exchange rules. The unresolved issue is whether those general derivatives standards are sufficient for markets involving sports, politics, disasters and other events that can present distinctive insider-trading or public-interest risks.

In June, the CFTC proposed restrictions on contracts involving war or assassination and on certain sports proposition contracts considered especially susceptible to manipulation, Decrypt reported. Nine Democratic senators have separately urged the agency to prohibit wildfire contracts, warning that they could encourage arson, disaster profiteering or trading based on nonpublic information.

The rulemaking also sits at the center of a broader jurisdictional fight. The CFTC maintains that event contracts listed on federally regulated exchanges are derivatives under its exclusive oversight. Several states contend that contracts tied to sports, elections and similar events constitute gambling, which are subject to state licensing and consumer-protection laws.

Thursday’s roundtable demonstrated that even within the industry, the central question is no longer simply whether prediction markets should be regulated. It is whether they should be held to the established derivatives framework, subjected to additional product-specific restrictions, or governed partly by state gambling standards. The answer will determine both the breadth of the CFTC’s authority and how quickly prediction markets can continue expanding.