Cautious Optimism From AI Execs Over Planned Lifting of Export Controls, But Concerns Remain

The Commerce Department confirmed Thursday that the Trump administration plans to lift some Biden-era rules restricting U.S. exports of computer chips and advanced technologies that power artificial intelligence systems. The so-called AI diffusion rules were imposed beginning in 2022 in a bid to protect U.S. competitiveness in the race to develop AI technology. But they imposed costs on some U.S. technology companies, particularly chipmakers, who were barred from selling their most advanced processors in some markets. Shares of Nvidia rose on the news as investors anticipated increased sales of its top-of-the-line GPUs.

Further down Pennsylvania Avenue, meanwhile, the leaders of OpenAI, Microsoft, and Advanced Micro Devices told a Senate Commerce subcommittee that lifting the export controls is among the most important steps the government could take to ensure the U.S. maintains its current lead over China and other leading technology developers.

“Eighteen percent of world’s population lives in China; 4% lives in the U.S.; and 78% lives somewhere else,” Microsoft president Brad Smith told the panel. “This is a global market, and like most technology markets, it will be defined by network effects. The race will be won by whosever technology is the most widely adopted.”

AMD CEO Lisa Su echoed that theme. “There are many different ways to do things. If the best way isn’t available there are other ways that may be nearly as good. China is doing that now,” she said. “We have the lead right now because we have the best technology. But we want to make sure it’s adopted.”

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News of the plan to lift the controls was greeted with cautious optimism on Wall Street. “It’s good for now,” because it “”removes some near-term uncertainty,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon told Investor’s Business Daily. In a note to clients, however, sounded a note of caution. “We are unfortunately not so innocent as to believe the issue is put to rest,” he wrote, noting that a Commerce Department spokesperson was also quoted as saying, “We will be replacing it with a much simpler rule that unleashes American innovation and ensures American AI dominance.”

“We don’t know what that means, but clearly something will presumably be waiting out there to replace the rules at some point. But what?” Rasgon wrote.

Beyond concurring with the administration on the need to lift export controls, other key priorities for U.S. competitiveness mentioned by the executives at Thursday’s hearing are at odds with from current White House policy, although they were circumspect in discussing them.

“We need support from our universities, and from the government agencies that fund their research,” Smith said, an apparent allusion, albeit oblique, to the steep cuts to university research grants and other funding ordered by the administration.

Su and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also emphasized the need for the U.S. to continue attracting talent from around the world.

“We need to make sure the best talent wants to come and work in America, and attend our universities,” Altman said.

“High skilled immigration is very important,” Su added. The U.S., she said, “is the best place to do AI innovation, and we need to make sure we continue to be the best place.”

The administration, however, has recently ordered the arrest and deportation of several university students and researchers, while others have left the country voluntarily.