CEOs are generally feeling more optimistic, but clouds remain on the horizon. The Q3 2026 installment of the Conference Board’s CEO Confidence™ report, released Thursday (Aug. 6), shows an improvement in sentiment.
The CEO Confidence Index rose to 52 in the third quarter of 2026 from 47 in Q2, with readings above 50 reflecting more positive than negative responses from the 136 CEOs that participated in the survey. The index has been erratic and largely pessimistic in the recent past, ever since it dropped from 60 in Q1 2025 to 34 in the following quarter.
This moderate uptick in sentiment likely stems from relieved geopolitical pressures in the Middle East, with expectations for economic conditions six months from now improving into slightly positive territory.
“CEO confidence revived somewhat in Q3 2026, potentially reflecting some easing in oil prices and geopolitical tensions,” Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “The reading suggests cautious optimism among leaders of large U.S. firms.”
The decline in pessimism was significant: 19% of CEOs reported expecting economic conditions to worsen, down from 40% in the prior quarter’s survey. CEOs’ assessments of current economic conditions recovered after plummeting in Q2 but remained slightly negative, with 23% saying that conditions are better than six months ago, up from 15% in Q2 2026.
Business leaders were most optimistic in their assessments of their own industries, widening the divide between their outlook for the overall economy and their expectations of their companies’ individual fate. Forty-three percent of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were better than six months ago, up from 33% in Q2. Thirty-six percent of CEOs expected these conditions to improve over the next six months, down slightly from 38% the quarter before.
Looking ahead, executives ranked cybersecurity and artificial intelligence (AI) as the top risks in the Q3 survey, followed by geopolitics. This order marks a shift from Q2, when geopolitics were the second-greatest concern.
Regarding their workforce, 34% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce, up from 28% in Q2 2026. This is higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (28%, down from 31%). Most CEOs (58%) continued to plan annual wage hikes concentrated in the 3.0 to 3.9% range.
In general, CEOs are less optimistic about the economy than consumers. The July edition of the PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index (PCEI), which accounts for consumers’ outlook on personal finances, the economy and the labor market, measures overall consumer sentiment at 55.6. That score has varied modestly month to month but has remained above the neutral threshold since the survey began in October. That said, consumers feel generally negatively about the macroeconomic and buying climate, with this subindex measuring 48.6 in July and generally hovering below 50.
