[…] Macro Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined to its lowest level in five years in April, marking five months of declines and reaching levels not seen since COVID. (Fox Business) Economic Growth: US consumer confidence fell in April, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest levels since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April from 92.9 in March. (Proactive Investors) Economic Growth: Apollo Global Management predicts a recession by the Summer of 2025 due to declining CAPEX plans and record-low consumer confidence amid tariffs. Despite a recent market rally, falling freight rates and stalled container ships indicate weakening consumer demand, supporting Apollo’s recession forecast. (Seeking Alpha) Economic Indicators: The current macroeconomic indicators, including a weakening dollar, rising Treasury yields, and weak manufacturing data, suggest caution and do not support a buy recommendation. Despite the 200-period moving average showing a potential buy signal, I prioritize macroeconomic fundamentals over chart analysis for investment decisions. (Seeking Alpha) Equity Positioning: Citigroup strategists led by Chris Montagu report that U.S. equity positioning has rebounded to near-neutral levels after recent tariff threats moderated and corporate earnings beat expectations. Last week saw positive position flows across all major indices—most notably in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq—driven by a mix of short covering and fresh long bets. The S&P 500 saw more muted moves but remained broadly stable. (FMP) Inflation: Australian inflation slowed in the first quarter of 2025, supporting the case for the country’s central bank to keep cutting interest rates next month. (WSJ) Inflation: This was higher than the Reuters expectations of a 2.3% climb, and unchanged than the 2.4% rise in the last quarter of 2024. (CNBC) Inflation: Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is on track to open higher ahead of the release of inflation data that economists expect will support a central-bank interest-rate cut next month. (WSJ) Interest Rates: US rate cut hopes, easing trade fears, and solid German earnings fuel bullish DAX outlook despite macro risks and sector volatility. (FXEmpire) International relations: April survey data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that new export orders slid to their weakest level since late 2022, underscoring the toll of steep U.S. tariffs on key industries. Factory managers reported falling demand abroad, driving the export-orders subindex down sharply—mirroring similar drops during the Covid-19 downturn. (FMP) International relations: Most Asian stock markets saw little movement on Wednesday as investors absorbed mixed economic signals. Weak factory activity in Japan and China, alongside Australia’s Q1 CPI report, left regional bourses broadly muted. India slipped on renewed India–Pakistan tensions, while South Korea’s markets retreated amid domestic political unrest. (FMP) International relations: At 08:40 ET, the Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 99.012, clawing back part of last week’s losses after dipping to a three-year low. Despite this uptick—driven by signs of easing U.S. tariff risk—The Index is still down 4.6% for April, its worst monthly drop since November 2022. (FMP) International relations: The S&P 500 closed up 0.6% on Tuesday—the sixth consecutive advance—driven by a steep drop in Treasury yields and fresh signs of tariff flexibility from the White House. The Dow jumped 300 points (+0.8%), while the Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.6%, as investors cheered President Trump’s planned reprieve on his 25% auto tariffs. (FMP) International relations: Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a strong surge, climbing sharply last week, but appears to be cooling off ahead of critical U.S. economic data releases and continued uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade tariffs. (FMP) International relations: Chinese exports show the impact of U.S trade war, Meta’s stand-alone AI app will compete with rivals, and more news to start your day. (Barrons) International relations: US stocks remain volatile as investors wait and see how the tariff situation unravels moving forward. Fears are that the Trump administration’s new trade policies could lead to a full-blown trade war or even a severe global recession. (Invezz) International relations: President Trump campaigned on shaking up the status quo. His first 100 days have delivered Wall Street a shake-up and then some. (Investopedia) International relations: Just 100 days into President Donald Trump’s second term, oil prices have slumped over 20% to below many U.S. producers’ breakeven costs as investors lose confidence amid tariff and policy uncertainty – undercutting Trump’s push for U.S. energy dominance. (Reuters) International relations: Investors who rushed out of Wall Street during a month of U.S. policy shocks that raised European growth risks are turning their attention to niche markets such as Latin American currencies and gold mining stocks in a new bid to out-run trade angst. (Reuters) International relations: South Korean Industry Ministry officials will travel to Washington on Wednesday for “technical discussions” with U.S. Trade Representative counterparts hoping to make progress on a potential deal over U.S. tariffs, Seoul’s ministry said. (Reuters) International relations: China’s manufacturing activity fell more-than-expected, sliding into contractionary territory in April as the escalating trade war with the U.S. hurt bilateral trade between the world’s two biggest economies. The official purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.0 in April, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, falling below the 50-level threshold, which determines expansion from contraction, for the first time since January. (CNBC) International relations: Volatility ruled over financial markets during President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office, whipsawing investors across asset classes. (Market Watch) International relations: Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Trump administration will weigh China’s lack of compliance with the “phase one” trade deal from the president’s first term in current negotiations. (Fox Business) International relations: A new poll shows more than 80% of senior executives are worried about tariffs and other policy shifts. (WSJ) International relations: Stocks continued their recent climb, as optimism spread among investors that recent tariff turmoil won’t hurt the economy as badly as feared. (WSJ) International relations: US stocks surged on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing over 360 points as investor sentiment improved on renewed hopes of a breakthrough in international trade negotiations. (Invezz) International relations: U.S. President Donald Trump plans to soften the blow of his auto tariffs on Tuesday with a mix of credits and relief from other levies on materials, and his trade team touted its first deal with a foreign trading partner, developments that eased investor worries about Trump’s erratic trade policies. (Reuters) International relations: President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, set to deliver the worst start for stocks since former President Richard Nixon’s second term in 1973, have stoked volatility across markets and created expectations of a semi-permanent state of uncertainty. (Reuters) International relations: President Donald Trump’s aggressive moves to remake the U.S. economy during the first three months of his second term are having a huge impact — and it will probably prove to be a very negative one when the report card for the first quarter is handed out. (Market Watch) International relations: Stocks are showing signs of fatigue, with a disconnect forming between stock rallies and currency/credit markets. The strengthening yen suggests potential declines for NASDAQ and S&P 500, influenced by the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and U.S. economic data. (Seeking Alpha) Investment Strategy: A recent Wells Fargo analysis shows that missing the 30 best trading days in the S&P 500 from April 1995 to April 2025 would have reduced average annual returns from 8.03% to just 1.67%, below inflation. This stark difference underscores how attempting to sidestep downturns can mean forfeiting the bounce-backs that drive long-term growth. (FMP) Market Sentiment: U.S. stock futures edged broadly lower on Wednesday as investors braced for a week packed with mega-cap tech earnings and critical economic indicators: (FMP) Market Sentiment: President Donald Trump’s second term has reached its 100-day milestone, and the performance of the S&P 500 during that period is the second-worst for an administration since 1945. (Fox Business) Market Sentiment: Stocks have made a remarkable comeback, while other assets are still hurting. (WSJ) Market Sentiment: U.S. stock futures edged lower and markets in were up in early trading even as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis joined the growing chorus of companies, cautioning about their forward guidance. (WSJ) Market Sentiment: It’s crucial to challenge consensus in investing; I regularly scrutinize my own analyses and market trends to identify potential risks. Despite a 5.9% rise in the S&P 500, I see several risks that could turn markets bearish, including geopolitical tensions and economic data. (Seeking Alpha) Market Sentiment: High-frequency sentiment surveys have consistently shown an overwhelming amount of bearish sentiment in recent weeks. 48.5% of responses expect lower prices in the next year, versus 36.1% expecting higher prices. (Seeking Alpha) Market Sentiment: A late April 2025 rally in the S&P 500 has sparked a wave of investor optimism, with some asserting that the market has fully absorbed the effects of President Trump’s tariffs. However, this optimism may be premature. (MarketBeat) Policy: President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has sparked fear and uncertainty in the markets. But Trump says voters should have expected him to impose tariffs when they backed him in November. (Business Insider) Retail Sales: German retail sales fell less than expected in March and import prices rose below expectations, according to data published on Wednesday. (Reuters) Trade: Citi strategists report that negative sentiment toward U.S. assets reached “extreme” levels during last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington. Investors cited “uncertainty” more than any other concern, reflecting fears that President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda could tip the economy into recession. (FMP) Trade: Gold extended declines in Asian trading on Wednesday after President Trump signed orders easing auto tariffs, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at an imminent major trade deal. These developments eased some of the risk-driven buying that had propelled bullion to record highs. (FMP) Trade: Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. (Seeking Alpha) Trade: What matters in U.S. and global markets today (Reuters) Trade: Shares struggled for direction on Wednesday and oil prices slid as investors awaited a raft of important economic data that could underscore this week’s corporate warnings about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. (Reuters) Trade: Trump administration officials hammering out tariff deals may find their next battle in the courtroom, where the outcome is far from assured. (Barrons) Trade: The Wall Street titan issued some of his bluntest public criticism of the White House’s trade policy to date on Trump’s 100 days in office. (New York Post) Trade: Most levies on imported cars and car parts will remain in place, but automakers have secured some relaxation of the trade policy. (NYTimes) Trade: Consumer confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month in April as consumers expressed growing concerns about tariffs’ negative effects on prices and the economy, The Conference Board said Tuesday (April 29). (PYMNTS) […]