I am always amazed at the naivete (and that should be naïve of me...) and lack of functional knowledge that some great WS investors and/or analysts display. I am only going to comment on the first bullet because that is where this thesis lost all its credibility. To project that Apple Pay will generate $2.5B in FY17 is senseless. 80%+ POS NFC penetration by EOY '17? The best forecasts I have seen are for 55% by end of year '18. The $4.2T spending base should have also been greatly reduced to factor the minimal impact that Apple Pay will have on online payments (as of what we know now) and to remove a base of merchants (e.g. Walmart) that will not support it. The coup de grace on Icahn's thesis was the assumption of 30% spend market share in a little more than 2 years. All of this is just hype. Apple Pay is a great and welcome first step towards payment simplification in this country and the iOS8 will become a solid operating system to support it. But it will not be Viagra as it will take time to remove plastics from our wallets.