In reply to ShamusR.

This is an important question. The US is the last G-20 country to shift to the EMV standard for credit cards. So we can look to the experience of other countries to anticipate what will happen.

The Retail Payments Risk Forum blog of Federal Reserve of Atlanta predicts in “Squeezing the Fraud Balloon” that the EMV standard will cause fraud will decline at point of sale, but shift online and other vulnerable areas.

The Aite Group projects that CNP (Card Not Present) fraud losses will grow from $3B in 2015 to $6B in 2018. This is based on the post-EMV liability shift experience of Europe, Canada, and Australia.