JPMorgan Forecasts Record Online Holiday Shopping Season

J.P. Morgan Chase said that brisk Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are likely indicators of a record-breaking eCommerce holiday shopping season.

J.P. Morgan Merchant Services’ combined in-store and eCommerce payments were up 15 percent over last year’s Black Friday weekend, “a sign that the pandemic did little to curtail spending as the holiday shopping season began,” Doug Smith, executive director of J.P. Morgan, said in a blog post on Friday (Dec. 4).

The bank also processed record-breaking online and mobile payment transactions on Cyber Monday, up nearly 25 percent over 2019. That helped offset a 12 percent drop in payment authorizations at physical stores as people continue to largely lock down amid the coronavirus pandemic.

“As the No. 1 eCommerce payment processor in the U.S. with 2019 transaction volume exceeding $1.5 trillion, J.P. Morgan’s card-present and card-not-present processing scale can provide uniquely valuable insight into consumer spending during the peak holiday shopping season,” Smith said.

Because of the pandemic, shoppers shifted to online shopping for both discretionary goods and everyday spending. Black Friday sales stretched across the entire month of November as retailers launched special deals as early as Nov. 1.

“The 2020 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be fundamentally different due to the increasing importance of digital sales channels,” Smith added.

The J.P. Morgan Merchant Services’ Data Science team provides its clients with strategic insights gleaned from the increasing amount of data that can be tapped thanks to digital transformation.

“Our Payment Optimization Framework provides a data-driven approach to continuously monitoring, benchmarking and optimizing payment acceptance,” Smith said.

He added that the company's clients also have the ability to combine payment data with treasury tools for improved “cash flow reporting, forecasting and utilization.”

PYMNTS' Black Friday 2020 Report: Crossing The Digital-Physical Shopping Divide survey indicated that three in four shoppers shopped digitally and three in 10 shopped exclusively online.