Producer Prices and Uncertainty Reset Businesses’ Supply Chain Priorities

January’s Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in hotter than expected. For businesses navigating tariff swings and fragile global supply chains, rising service margins signal that cost pressure is rippling through logistics and distribution channels. As for the read across for consumers, even when commodity prices cool, supply chain volatility can keep prices elevated at the register.

By the numbers, the Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% in January, while the 12-month rise reached 2.9%. Beneath that aggregate figure lies a supply chain divergence. Final demand services advanced 0.8%, led by a 2.5% increase in trade margins.

Trade indexes measure the margins received by wholesalers and retailers, meaning that distribution layers within supply chains absorbed or expanded markups even as certain goods inputs softened.

Tariffs and Global Exposure Intensify Supply Chain Risk

For middle-market firms, pricing volatility coincides with policy uncertainty. PYMNTS Intelligence has tracked the sentiment and planning of executives as they contend with unpredictability across critical areas including supply chains, payments capabilities and liquidity. Goods-producing firms faced sharper strain, with nearly three in 10 CFOs in that sector citing high uncertainty.

Supply chain exposure is a decisive dividing line. Among firms with only domestic suppliers, 18% of CFOs reported high uncertainty. That figure nearly doubles to 33% for firms with 40% or more suppliers overseas. Moreover, 54% of CFOs who lack confidence in their ability to adapt to tariff-related disruption report high uncertainty, compared with 17% among those expressing at least some confidence.

Cash Flow Certainty as a Supply Chain Stabilizer

Against that backdrop, businesses are adjusting the mechanics of their supply chains rather than merely revising price lists.

The 2025-2026 Growth Corporates Working Capital Index, done in collaboration between PYMNTS Intelligence and Visa Acceptance Solutions, shows that 85% of U.S. Growth Corporates, or middle-market firms, use working capital solutions.

Index scores rose to a North American average of 55 in 2025–26, up from 52 the prior year. These gains are associated with stronger cash flow visibility and more deliberate liquidity deployment. Unpredictable financing needs declined materially. Early invoice payments increased to 41% in Canada, up from 34% the previous year. Paying suppliers earlier can secure favorable terms and reinforce relationships during periods of supply constraint.

Artificial intelligence adoption for working capital efficiency reached 42% across North America. Firms are applying predictive analytics to model demand swings, anticipate tariff exposure and synchronize payables with receivables. These capabilities strengthen supply chain resilience by reducing informational gaps.

Commercial and virtual cards are also gaining ground. For example, in Canada, 17% of middle-market firms used them in 2025, up from 7% in 2024. Businesses cited streamlined workflows, reduced operational burden and stronger approval control as advantages. Card-based payments can enable prompt settlement without constraining liquidity, helping firms maintain supplier stability even when producer prices fluctuate.

Consumers Adjust as Supply Chains Transmit Costs

When supply chains tighten and prices rise, consumer behavior adjusts, as is also shown in our research. The February 2026 Pay Later Ecosystem Report shows that 45% of millennials and 42% of bridge millennials used credit card installment plans in the prior three months, while one-quarter of each group used BNPL. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck, 36% used credit card installments and 18% used BNPL.

These figures indicate that households are smoothing cash flow in response to pricing variability that often originates upstream.

The January PPI data illuminates how volatility travels through supply chains, how tariff exposure magnifies risk, and how disciplined liquidity management can mitigate the speed at which upstream costs reach the consumer.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.