Cyber Monday Spending Forecast to Climb 6% With AI’s Help

American consumers are projected to spend $14.2 billion for Cyber Monday.

That’s up 6.3% from 2024 and follows record levels of eCommerce shopping on Black Friday, Reuters reported Monday (Dec. 1), citing Adobe Analytics data.

As Reuters noted, the all-time high of $11.8 billion in spending last week came as consumers embraced artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots to compare prices and land discounts.

“AI is the ultimate purchase accelerator, guiding consumers with clear intent straight to the buy button,” said Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce.

Adobe expects more than half of the online spending on Cyber Monday is expected to come from three categories — electronics, apparel and furniture — with Americans looking to get their holiday shopping wrapped up.

The company’s Black Friday findings showed that AI-driven traffic to American retail sites surged by 805% since 2024, as AI shopping assistants from Walmart (Sparky) and Amazon (Rufus) had not yet launched.

As PYMNTS wrote last week, these assistants are part of a wider effort by the retail world to fuel growth at a time of continuing consumer caution.

“The National Retail Federation expects shoppers to collectively spend more than $1 trillion during November and December, a year-over-year increase between 3.7% and 4.2%,” that report said. “Under normal circumstances, this would read as a comfortably optimistic forecast. But in 2025, normal circumstances feel like a relic.”

Meanwhile, new research by PYMNTS Intelligence, from the report “Black Friday on a Budget: How Discipline and Deals Shaped Holiday Shopping in 2025,” shows that the number of Black Friday shoppers had fallen 7% year over year, with in-store shopping down 11%.

“Restraint ruled,” that report said. “Thirty-seven percent of consumers bought fewer items than last year — up seven percentage points on 2024’s level, and a sign of increasing pocketbook strain and disciplined budgeting amid inflation, cost-of-living pressures and the impact of tariffs on imports from toys to furniture.”

And with two-thirds of Americans feeling strain on their bank accounts, strategizing how to pay was a popular trend. Close to 60% of the more than 20% of consumers who live paycheck to paycheck with difficulty paying monthly bills used their credit cards to pay in fixed installments. More than half of Gen Z consumers used card rewards to do the heavy lifting. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) nudged up slightly to 11.9% of all purchases from 11.7% in 2024.

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