eCommerce Sales Take Big Hit for January; Is Uncertainty to Blame?

January’s retail sales data showed a broad slump, worse than economists had expected.

And though the headlines and analysis — depending on where you go to find them — may tie the pullback to weather and uncertainty over tariffs, even eCommerce sales (contained in the non-store retailer category) showed a notable decline, as did essential everyday spend categories.

Maybe the last-minute gift buying this week and even into Valentine’s Day itself will prop up, say, florists, chocolatiers and apparel merchants.

As reported by the Census Bureau on Friday (Feb. 14), seasonally adjusted sales (which do not adjust for price changes) were down 0.9% from the December period, outpacing the 0.2% decline that consensus had expected. This ends a four-month streak of consecutive gains. Gains are still in evidence, as measured year over year (YoY).

Non-store retailers, which account for 18% of the monthly total estimate, saw a steeper decline in the first month of 2025, inching down 1.9% according to advance estimates. As PYMNTS Intelligence has documented in the past, the category also includes (but is not limited to) eCommerce sellers, so the general trend of this line item indicates that even clicking, buying and getting things delivered held little appeal, at least in January.

Looking at Non-Store Retail

The YoY percentage change in non-store retailer sales was a 3.8% gain. Even if prices in segments more related to non-store purchases rose, in line or even more with the CPI according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (apparel prices increased 0.4% in the 12 months ending in January, while food away from home has seen spikes of an average 3.4%), it is still noteworthy that the yearly increase is significantly below that registered just one month ago, of 11.7%. The monthly downturn is the steepest in nearly four years.

As recently reported by PYMNTS, this might seem as an indication of increased deal-chasing during the holiday season and special sales events. January’s retail sales decline may indeed be a cooling off period.

But, in a bit of a read across, PYMNTS reported that U.S. consumers loaded up on credit card debt at the end of December, as noted by the New York Fed, and in fact took on more around $45 billion in new card spending during the holiday shopping season. At the same time, delinquency rates on paying back the balances from the credit card spending that’s already taken place stand at multi-year highs.

The Friday retail sales data for January indicate that month-over-month spending on clothing and accessories was 1.2% lower, and spending at sporting goods, electronics and other hobby-related establishments slipped 4.6% — the largest decline among all categories that were surveyed.

In fact, this category is down 4.1% from last year, which implies that discretionary spending has been at the mercy of a pronounced belt tightening as households re-examine their budgets. It’s the only category of goods to see a slide year over year — and the question remains as to what other categories might be at risk in the months ahead.