CEO Confidence Slips Amid Geopolitical Instability and Regulatory Uncertainty

Growing concerns about geopolitical instability and legal and regulatory uncertainty accompanied a slight decline in CEO confidence in the fourth quarter.

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence in collaboration with The Business Council dropped one point to 51 in the fourth quarter, down from 52 in the third quarter and a two-year high of 54 in the second quarter, according to a Thursday (Oct. 24) press release .

A reading above 50 indicates that CEOs provided more positive than negative responses, according to the release.

The most recent reading marked the second consecutive quarter in which the measure declined, the release said.

“Views about the economy overall — both now and six months hence — were little changed from Q3,” Dana M. Peterson , chief economist at The Conference Board, said in the release. “However, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries declined.”

When assessing general economic conditions, 30% of CEOs said these conditions were worse than six months ago, up from 26% in the third quarter, according to the release.

Assessing conditions in their own industries, 34% said those conditions were worse than six months ago, up from 31% in the third quarter, per the release.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook improved slightly in the fourth quarter, while their expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries were much less optimistic, the release said.

“Compared to a year ago, there was a noticeable uptick in CEOs concerned about geopolitical instability, along with legal and regulatory uncertainty — which may explain decreasing confidence about prospects in their own industries,” Roger W. Ferguson Jr. , vice chairman of The Business Council and chair emeritus of The Conference Board, said in the release.

This report comes about two weeks after another survey found that consumer sentiment inched down in early October amid continued frustration over the prices of goods and services.

While the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers dipped a “meager” 1.7% or 1.2 index points — a figure that is within the margin of error — that marked a change from the gains seen during the previous two months, the survey found.