AI Chip Demand Surge Sparks Debate on Future Shortages

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is raising concerns about a new global semiconductor shortage, with experts offering diverse perspectives on its timing, scope and impact on supply chains, consumer markets and innovation.

A new report from Bain and Company warns of surging demand for AI-focused chips and AI-enabled devices outstripping supply. This scenario echoes recent shortages that hampered industries from automaking to consumer electronics, highlighting AI’s growing influence on global commerce.

“AI-driven chip shortages could significantly impact the availability and pricing of AI-enabled electronics, disrupt supply chains in AI-reliant industries and slow innovation in AI products, ultimately affecting global commerce,” Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics, told PYMNTS.

When a Shortage Might Hit

The scale of chip demand is substantial. In 2023, advanced AI chips sold for approximately $40,000 each, with solid demand for over a million units. Projections suggest the global market for AI chips could experience rapid growth, potentially increasing in valuation by $85-95 billion annually by 2025.

Some in the industry share this perspective.

“A chip shortage could drive up prices and limit the availability of AI-enabled electronics,” Labhesh Patet, co-founder and CEO of the AI company Autonomys, told PYMNTS. He said that increasing semiconductor demand, current supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions like U.S. restrictions on China’s access to advanced chips will likely raise production costs for AI-powered devices.

Not all experts agree on the immediacy of the threat.

“The shortage is coming, but it might not be as soon as many fear. We shouldn’t expect a big effect on the pricing and availability of electronics. The demand for AI-enabled electronics is simply not big enough yet, and it has been decreasing since COVID-19,” Antanas Laurutis, CEO of Altechna, told PYMNTS.

Broader market dynamics support this view.

“The demand is also slowly decreasing or at a stagnant phase,” Laurutis said.

Industry Impacts

eCommerce is vulnerable to AI chip shortages. Advanced AI models analyze user data — like browsing patterns and purchase history — to understand consumer behavior and predict future actions. This technology enables hyper-personalized shopping experiences that can appeal to consumers.

Semiconductor shortages could hinder companies’ ability to upgrade or maintain these AI systems. The potential consequences include decreased operational efficiency, slower response times and harm to customer satisfaction.

Some experts see potential mitigating factors. The CHIPS Act and the shift of chip manufacturing back to the U.S. could play a role.

“We believe that by the time the surge of demand and this shortage happens, it will already be produced free from China influence, reducing the impact of expected shortages for AI-reliant industries,” Laurutis said.

Opinions also diverge on the likelihood of an innovation slowdown. The time required to build new manufacturing facilities could slow the race to AI dominance, potentially delaying the development and deployment of AI technologies. This concern is particularly acute given the experience of the global chip shortage from 2020 to 2023.

A prolonged chip shortage could have far-reaching consequences. Industries like eCommerce, manufacturing and logistics rely heavily on AI-powered technologies that require advanced semiconductors to keep improving. If chips become more challenging to obtain, it could stall the development of new AI tools, disrupt business operations and make it harder for companies to stay agile, potentially affecting markets worldwide.

Contrasting views suggest market forces might prevent prolonged shortages.

”Overall, the market dictates the demand; it self-regulates. And when technological maturity and real market demand are reached, capital will ensure that the shortage doesn’t last too long and doesn’t slow down innovation,” Laurutis said.