JPMorgan Forecasts Rising Interest Income Despite Economic Uncertainty

America’s biggest bank says businesses and consumers are resilient in the face of uncertainty.

As such, JPMorgan Chase is projecting that it could earn more from interest payments this year, according to a Reuters report Monday (May 19) from the bank’s annual presentation to investors and analysts.

Jeremy Barnum, the bank’s chief financial officer, told investors that JPMorgan’s net interest income — the difference between what it pays on deposits and makes from interest payments — could increase by $1 billion this year. However, he said it was too soon to adjust the full-year NII projection of $94.5 billion.

“The evolving tariff environment, combined with the preexisting geopolitical tensions, adds significant uncertainty into the economic outlook,” Barnum said. “The combination of inflation and large fiscal deficits may constrain the available policy responses in ways that further increase the risk.”

Meanwhile, the bank estimated that its net charge-off rate, the share of credit card debt that will not be repaid, will come to between 3.6% and 3.9% for 2026, compared to the 3.6% net charge-off rate JPMorgan expects to see this year.

“We see both consumers and small businesses remaining financially healthy and resilient,” said Marianne Lake, CEO of consumer and community banking. “However, what has definitely worsened is consumer confidence and small business sentiment.”

Her comments come on the heels of last week’s preliminary May reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

“Consumer gloom is not quite at historic levels — but it’s awfully close,” PYMNTS wrote about those findings. “Households are worried about inflation, about their own pressured finances as incomes and purchasing power weakens. They’re worried about tariffs.”

The university’s readings showed consumer sentiment at 50.2 down from 52.2 in April, and now is at the second lowest level recorded by the monthly study.

That survey followed new PYMNTS Intelligence research on how consumers are readjusting their spending plans in the face of those pressures, brought on by tariffs and trade wars.

“The volatile nature of the tariffs, levied in on-again, off-again fashion, makes that planning volatile too,” PYMNTS wrote.

“Given the fact that imported goods account for 45% of shoppers’ purchases, according to a PYMNTS Intelligence calculation based on Bureau of Economic Analysis and census data, the impact of tariffs will be keenly felt.”

Six out of 10 consumers surveyed for the study expect to see price increases, while half of that group worry about the onset of a recession. Under half of all consumers believe the tariffs will generate more jobs.