JPMorgan CEO: ‘Real Chance’ US Economic Numbers Will Dip

The head of America’s largest bank has a gloomy forecast for the U.S. economy.

“I think there’s a real chance numbers will deteriorate soon,” J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in reference to indicators like the labor market Tuesday (June 10), noting major upheaval in things such as trade and global politics.

“There’s a lot of moving parts,” said Dimon, whose comments at the Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference were reported by Seeking Alpha. “We see it a little bit today. The tariffs are hitting.”

Dimon predicted large impacts happening in “maybe July, August, September, October….hopefully, it will not be dramatic. Maybe it’ll be a little softer of a soft landing.”

“None of it is material yet,” he added. “If inflation rears its ugly head, or you see stagflation, that will shock people.”

Dimon’s thoughts on the state of the economy were echoed by other banking CEOs who spoke at the Morgan Stanley event.

For example, Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said the lender expects U.S. consumer loan growth to remain flat or possibly decrease through the end of the year.

“I wouldn’t expect large growth on the consumer side in any way, potentially even a net decline,” Santomassimo said.

As for commercial loans, the executive said the uncertainty around tariffs makes it tough to predict the sector’s growth this year.

Also at the conference was Citigroup Head of Banking Vis Raghavan, who said the bank is readying for a potential downturn in consumer financial health by putting aside more provisions for potential losses on loans.

“Given the macro environment, etc., cost of credit compared to last quarter, we expect to be up a few hundred million,” Raghavan said, adding that the bank’s credit reserve build changes frequently according to its outlook.

Their comments came the same day that the World Bank released the latest installment of its Global Economic Prospects report, in which it slashed its growth forecasts for 70% of the world’s economies, including the U.S., China and Europe, from levels it projected just before President Donald Trump took office.

“Only six months ago, a ‘soft landing’ appeared to be in sight: the global economy was stabilizing after an extraordinary string of calamities both natural and man-made over the past few years,” wrote Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist.

“That moment has passed. The world economy today is once more running into turbulence. Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep. International discord — about trade, in particular — has upended many of the policy certainties that helped shrink extreme poverty and expand prosperity after the end of World War II.”