Jobless Claims Decline by 10,000 Amid ‘No Hire, No Fire’ Labor Market

There was a decline in initial claims for unemployment together with an increase in insured employment last week.

Observers said this combination reflected a continuation of a “no hire, no fire” labor market.

During the week ended Saturday (Dec. 20), there were 214,000 initial claims, a figure that was 10,000 lower than the 224,000 reported the previous week, the Department of Labor said in a Wednesday (Dec. 24) press release.

The four-week moving average of 216,750 was 750 lower than the previous week’s average of 217,500.

The drop in initial claims was unexpected, Reuters reported Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 224,000 claims. The report added that the discrepancy could be due to the challenges of adjusting data for seasonal fluctuations during the holiday season.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the economists that it polled had expected to see 225,000 claims during the week. The WSJ added that weekly initial claims have stayed within a range of 200,000 to 250,000 for most of 2025.

The DOL also reported Wednesday that during the week ended Dec. 13, the insured unemployment rate was 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week.

The insured unemployment number for that week was 1,923,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week, according to the release.

The four-week moving average of 1,893,750 was 5,250 lower than the previous week.

Reuters reported Wednesday that the combination of a decline in initial claims and an increase in insured unemployment reflected the continuing trend of a “no hire, no fire” job market.

The WSJ also reported Wednesday that employers have been reluctant to lay off workers for most of this year because of a “hazy economic outlook.”

The Conference Board said Tuesday (Dec. 23) that consumer confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month in December. In a press release, the organization said consumers’ views of the labor market were weaker in December, with fewer saying jobs were “plentiful” and more saying jobs were “hard to get.”

In comments submitted to the DOL and included in the DOL’s Wednesday press release, the state with the second-largest decrease in the number of initial claims filed during the week ended Dec. 13, New York, with 5,720 fewer, attributed the change to fewer layoffs in three industries: transportation and warehousing; accommodation and food services; and construction.

The state with the largest decrease in initial claims, Illinois, with 7,242 fewer, did not submit comments to the DOL.

No state had an increase of more than 1,000 initial claims during the week ended Dec. 13.