San Francisco Fed Chief Spots Risky Economic Disconnect

Businesses and workers have different views of the economy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President and CEO Mary C. Daly said in a Friday (Feb. 6) post on LinkedIn.

Businesses are “cautiously optimistic,” with good growth, solid consumer spending easy hiring and rising productivity, Daly said. Workers are “not so sure,” as they are concerned about employment.

“In many ways, this disconnect makes sense,” Daly said in the post. “We’ve been in a relatively low-hiring, low-firing environment for some time. That may persist, but workers are aware that things could change quickly, leaving them in a no-hiring, more-firing labor market. With inflation printing above the FOMC’s 2 percent goal, this rightly feels precarious.”

“What does this mean for policy? We must watch both sides of our mandate,” Daly said. “Americans deserve both price stability and full employment, and we can’t take either for granted.”

Reuters, which flagged Daly’s post in a Friday report, said that in the time since last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to leave short-term borrowing costs on hold, policymakers have split on what should be done next. Some have cited a growing risk of higher inflation, while others have pointed to uncertainty around employment.

PYMNTS reported Friday that consumers are encouraged by cooling inflation but unsettled by a volatile labor market. Provisional February figures released Friday by the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment edging up 1.6% from January after deteriorating for months.

Widespread consumer concerns about potential job loss were reinforced by federal data this week that showed that job openings have declined sharply. The openings rate fell to 3.9% in December, down from 4.5% a year earlier and 5.2% in 2023. Currently there are 1.2 unemployed workers for every available position.

The Bank of America Institute said Friday that January saw payrolls rise 0.8% year over year and the growth in the number of households receiving unemployment benefits dip slightly, pointing to “a stabilizing, and possibly re-accelerating, labor market.”

Human resources and payroll solutions provider ADP said Wednesday (Feb. 4) that January was a “lackluster month for hiring,” as the number of jobs added by the private sector dropped from 37,000 in December to 22,000.