Conference Board Reports Biggest Improvement in Employment Trends Since 2022

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) saw its largest two-month increase in two years in October and November.

The Index — a composite index based on eight leading indicators of employment — rose to 109.55 in November from an upwardly revised 108.25 in October, The Conference Board said in a Monday (Dec. 9) press release.

“The ETI rose again in November, marking consecutive monthly gains for the first time in 2024,” Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board, said in the release. “The increases in October and November add up to the largest two-month increase in the ETI since the torrid period of job gains in 2022 coming out of the pandemic.”

Increases in the Index indicate likely growth in employment, according to the release.

The factors contributing to the ETI’s rise in November include a 2.4 percentage point drop in the share of consumers who said “jobs are hard to get,” a rise in in the share of firms that reported “jobs not able to fill right now,” and a rebound in job openings — which had hit a post-pandemic low in September, the release said.

The month also saw increases in industrial production and in real manufacturing and trade sales, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the share of involuntary part-time workers, and a drop in the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance after the disruptions caused in some regions in September and October by hurricanes, per the release.

“We see labor demand sitting in a healthy range through November, but a range that is clearly lower than we saw in the rehiring frenzy following the pandemic,” Barnes said in the release. “Looking ahead, we see more positive sentiment, perhaps benefiting from reduced policy and interest rate uncertainty, that could help maintain and bolster labor market strength into 2025.”

The Department of Labor said Thursday (Dec. 5) that jobless claims rose by 9,000 during the week ended Nov. 30, which included Thanksgiving, but media reports suggested that the rise was due to the volatility in data that is typically seen around holidays.

On Tuesday, (Dec. 3), the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that available jobs increased, as measured in October, while hiring slowed.

With the labor market showing signs of strength, consumers living paycheck to paycheck are eyeing job changes, PYMNTS reported Friday (Dec. 6).