Liberation Day May Be a Year Old but the Uncertainty Isn’t

One year after the Trump Administration’s Liberation Day tariff announcements, 12 months have established a clear pattern for middle-market firms.  A policy shock has evolved into a durable operating condition, where volatility is arguably the only constant, shaping how businesses plan, invest and manage risk.

Across PYMNTS Intelligence’s Certainty Project, firms spanning sectors and geographic reach informed us that tariffs, or the anticipation of tariffs, impacted day-to-day decision-making, affecting not only costs but also confidence, demand and long-term strategy.

The Initial Shockwaves

Headed into Trump’s sweeping April 2, 2025, pronouncement, tariffs were still framed in terms of expectations. In March of last year, we found that 22% of CFOs reported operating in high uncertainty, and 60% anticipated that tariffs would worsen planning conditions. Even at that stage, confidence was limited. Only 38% said they felt very or extremely confident in their ability to manage tariff-related supply chain disruption.  Even as far back as February, as our surveys showed, executives were girding for impact across supply chains and even potential layoffs.

By the April survey, reflected here, conditions had shifted sharply in the wake of Liberation Day. Among goods product leaders, the share reporting high uncertainty, tied to supply chain disruptions, rose to 33%, up from 11% in March. At the same time, confidence deteriorated with unusual speed. The share of goods product leaders who felt highly certain they could manage supply chain disruption fell from 40% in February and 37% in March to just 5% in April.

Subsequent reports confirmed that this was not a temporary adjustment. Firms operating in high-uncertainty environments reported no meaningful confidence in their ability to adapt. By the fall, 35% of goods CFOs continued to report high operational uncertainty, and only 41% expected conditions to improve over the following year.

The Certainty Project shows how firms moved from limited preparation to active response.

A year ago, nearly 7 in 10 CFOs expected supply chain delays or shortages, and a similar share anticipated higher costs from restructuring supply chains. Yet only 20% had implemented contingency plans, while half had taken little or no action.

But as of May, nearly 9 in 10 heads of payments at goods firms anticipated shortages or delays, and the same share expected higher raw material costs. More than two-thirds also expected export challenges tied to retaliatory measures abroad.

Towards the end of last year, nearly 3 in 4 CFOs said they had changed their investment strategies during the year. The data shows a clear progression from anticipation to reaction to structural adjustment.

Tariffs Weigh on Operations

The operational impact of tariffs was broad and persistent. Firms reported increased costs, supply chain disruption and reduced profitability as ongoing pressures rather than isolated events.

Headed into the initial realities of Liberation Day, 45% of goods firms expected to raise prices, only 5% planned to do so as an initial response. Most firms sought to negotiate with suppliers or adjust sourcing strategies first.

But by September, that restraint had largely disappeared. By August, 9 in 10 goods firms had raised prices, along with more than 7 in 10 services firms. Even so, 75% of goods firms and more than half of services firms reported margin declines. Three in 4 CFOs had raised prices, yet 58% still reported falling margins. Nearly half also reported weaker customer demand.

Global Supply Chains and Risk

The divergence between firms with domestic and international supply chains became increasingly pronounced over time.

The October report showed that only 1 in 5 firms with heavy reliance on international suppliers reported a good or great year, compared to nearly two-thirds of firms with limited foreign supplier exposure. Those highly exposed firms were also significantly more likely to report supplier price increases and order delays.

The chart below, on international supply chain exposure reflects this widening gap, making clear that tariffs did not affect firms evenly. Exposure determined outcomes.

Uncertainty and Margins

The effects of tariffs extended beyond operations into revenue and demand. As seen here, firms operating in high-uncertainty environments reported an average revenue decline of 6% over the prior 12 months.

At the same time, demand weakened. In 2025’s waning months, PYMNTS Intelligence found that nearly half of CFOs reported declining customer demand. Among firms with high international supplier exposure, 91% reported weaker B2B demand and 86% reported weaker B2C demand.

The shift in planning priorities is one of the clearest through lines in the data.

By November, nearly 3 in 4 CFOs had changed investment strategies. Goods firms were 46% more likely to prioritize caution over growth, and 40% identified delaying planned investments as their primary response to tariffs. By year end, priorities had consolidated around defense. Thirty-five percent of CFOs cited risk management and compliance as their top focus, while 30% prioritized supply chain resilience. Only a small minority emphasized new products or market expansion.

New Operating Baseline?

In the September report, 48% of product executives said tariffs represented a long-term U.S. policy direction, and another 45% described them as a mix of short- and long-term measures. Only 7% continued to view them as temporary.

By the December report, 47% of goods product leaders said tariffs were mostly or completely negative for business finances, and 88% still expected supply chain disruptions. At the same time, roughly two-thirds of goods firms and 80% of services firms said tariffs could strengthen supply chain resilience over time.

The data reflects a shift from reaction to normalization. Tariffs are now embedded in planning assumptions rather than treated as external shocks. The next phase is less certain. Firms have adjusted, but the question is whether those adjustments can support renewed growth and not simply continued defense.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.