Goldman Sachs Says US Unemployment Applications Inched Up Last Week

Goldman Sachs Group reportedly calculated that initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States inched up from 218,000 to 224,000 during the week ended Saturday (Sept. 27).

The bank published these figures because the federal government shutdown prevented the Labor Department from releasing the data it usually produces each week, Bloomberg reported Friday (Oct. 3).

Goldman Sachs produced its numbers by using state-level data that was released by the Labor Department and adjusting that data with seasonal factors that were pre-released by the agency, according to the report.

The bank also determined that the number of people receiving benefits declined from 1.93 million to 1.91 million during the week ended Sept. 20, per the report.

Reuters reported Friday that the Chicago Fed used private “real-time” data and other information to produce its own unofficial estimate of the national unemployment rate, determining that it remained about the same as the previous month at 4.3%.

In the same report, Reuters said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, used data from payroll processor ADP and staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, together with his company’s own internal models, to determine that there was little change in the job market from August to September.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday (Oct. 2) that the labor market is “stagnating” amid factors like cost increases and artificial intelligence adoption.

“With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” Andy Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a Thursday press release.

ADP said Wednesday (Oct. 1) that the private sector employed 32,000 fewer people in September than it did the month before and that job creation continued to slow across most sectors.

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said in a press release.