Fed Data Finds Households Keep Big Purchases in Play

Consumers still intend to spend, and new Federal Reserve findings, alongside PYMNTS Intelligence data, show how they expect to make those purchases work.

The latest Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Spending Survey indicates that spending intentions over the next 12 months have held at 3.4% growth. But inflation expectations from the same institution stand at 3.6%, implying households are not planning for meaningful gains in purchasing power.

That leaves less room for organic spending growth and more incentive to manage timing. Which is where the payment implications emerge.

Consumers continue to expect higher spending on essentials, with food projected to rise 5.6%, transportation 5.4% and medical care 4.9%. Aggregate essential spending expectations rose to 5.1%, while nonessential spending is expected to increase just 1.8%.

That divergence suggests the opportunity is becoming less about encouraging new purchases and more about helping households absorb purchases they still intend to make.

PYMNTS Intelligence data points in the same direction.

As noted in reporting on generational pressures, households, particularly younger cohorts, are combining spending cuts with financing and budgeting tactics. Roughly 1 in 5 bridge millennials, millennials and Gen Z consumers reported using four or more simultaneous coping strategies, including reducing spending, using credit, delaying purchases and turning to installment structures.

Importantly, PYMNTS Intelligence found that consumers are not necessarily adding leverage because they want more discretionary buying power. They are attempting to maintain recurring household obligations while smoothing uneven cash flow.

Beyond Discretionary Purchases

The Fed data also counters any assumption, or perhaps conventional wisdom, that households are retreating from larger purchases.

Sixty percent of households reported making at least one large purchase in the prior four months, above the average recorded in recent April surveys. Vacations remained the largest category at 23%, followed by home repairs at 20%, while furniture, appliances and electronics also posted gains versus prior years. Lower-income consumers showed increased participation in home repairs and appliance-related purchases.

Those categories matter because they sit in the overlap between necessity and flexibility.

Home repairs are difficult to postpone indefinitely. Appliance replacement often arrives unexpectedly. Medical spending increasingly behaves like a recurring expense rather than a one-time event.

That opens more room for installment options that behave like household management tools rather than traditional credit products.

Capacity Is Splitting by Income

The PYMNTS Intelligence Consumer Expectations Index adds another layer of insight.

Income increasingly determine much of the flexibility they bring into spending decisions.

Households earning $150,000 or more posted an overall expectations score of 63.1, while households earning below $50,000 registered 48.0, creating a persistent 15-point divide.

Lower-income consumers remain operationally active but with limited buffer. Debt-management confidence as consumers increasingly view managing obligations as a core household capability even when savings remain constrained.

If spending intentions remain intact while financial cushion weakens, the commercial opportunity shifts toward products that preserve purchasing continuity: installments, flexible repayment, spend visibility and payment timing controls.

The Fed data suggests households still plan to buy. The PYMNTS data suggests they increasingly expect payment tools to help make those planned purchases a reality.