IDC Lowers Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Forecast, Citing Uncertainty and Tariffs

The volume of worldwide smartphone shipments in 2025 is expected to be impacted by uncertainty, tariff volatility and a slowdown in consumer spending, market intelligence firm International Data Corporation (IDC) said Thursday (May 29).

IDC lowered its forecast for worldwide smartphone shipments in 2025 from the 2.3% year-over-year growth it expected in February to 0.6%, the firm said in a Thursday press release.

“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty,” Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said in the release. “While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk.”

Despite trade tensions between the U.S. and China, those countries are expected to drive this year’s 0.6% growth, according to the release.

The U.S. market is expected to grow 1.9% in 2025, down from IDC’s previous forecast of 3.3%, the release said. IDC attributed the drop to uncertainty and tariff-related price increases. The company said it expected to see the average selling price of smartphones in the U.S. rise 4%.

China’s smartphone market is expected to grow 3% in 2025, driven by government subsidies, per the release.

Counterpoint Technology Market Research said May 14 that U.S. smartphone shipments leaped 30% year over year in March as manufacturers raced to bring new inventory into the country ahead of the tariffs that were anticipated and then announced by President Donald Trump April 2.

“The increase in shipments in March and early April will help insulate Apple from potential immediate pricing impacts in the U.S. through mid- to late-summer,” Counterpoint Senior Research Analyst Gerrit Schneemann said in a press release at the time.

Global technology market analyst firm Canalys said April 30 that after Apple built up its inventory in the first quarter, the U.S. smartphone market is expected to experience “considerable volatility” over the next two or three quarters due to uncertainty around tariffs and weakening consumer confidence.

On May 23, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Apple, saying, “I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States.”