Conference Board Reports Employment Trends Decline Amid ‘Growing Policy Uncertainty’

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in February, dropping to its lowest level since October and signaling a likely decrease in employment.

“Growing policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on business and consumer sentiment, with more substantial impacts from federal layoffs and funding disruptions expected in the months ahead,” The Conference Board Economist Mitchell Barnes said in a Monday (March 10) press release.

Five of the eight labor market indicators aggregated in the ETI declined in February, according to the release.

While measures of economic activity remained stable, perceived labor market strength saw modest declines, the release said.

The share of consumers who said jobs are hard to get rose 1.8 percentage points and the share of small firms that said jobs could not be filled rose by 3 percentage points, per the release.

“The jobs market remains healthy overall, but risks of a slowdown in the hiring environment are emerging,” Barnes said in the release. “Uncertainty is likely to make employers more cautious and, if prolonged, could portend more pronounced labor market weakness in the coming months.”

The decline in The Conference Board’s ETI follows a decline in January that was recorded after the index saw its largest two-month increase in two years in October and November.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global outplacement and executive and business coaching firm, said Thursday (March 6) that job cuts in the government, retail and technology sectors led to February having the highest monthly total of job cuts since July 2020.

“With the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) actions, as well as canceled government contracts, fear of trade wars and bankruptcies, job cuts soared in February,” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas said at the time in a press release.

Human resources (HR) and payroll solution provider ADP said Wednesday (March 5) that private sector job growth slowed in February amid employers’ concerns about an uncertain economic outlook. The number of jobs added in February was the lowest since July.

“Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said at the time in a press release.