Ex-OpenAI Prodigy Turns $1.5B Hedge Fund Into AI Bet

A former OpenAI researcher with no professional investing experience has founded an artificial intelligence (AI) startup that reportedly now manages $1.5 billion in assets.

Leopold Aschenbrenner is the founder of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that raised money more quickly than pedigreed portfolio managers that go solo, according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Aschenbrenner, who graduated valedictorian from Columbia University at age 19, first got on the radar of folks in the AI community after publishing a widely read 165-page manifesto on the promise and risks of artificial intelligence (AI) in the decade ahead.

“Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them,” Aschenbrenner wrote. “Before long, the world will wake up. But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. … I have found myself amongst them.

Situational Awareness is an investment firm focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI), according to the startup’s website. The WSJ said Aschenbrenner has described the startup as a “brain trust on AI.”

Aschenbrenner’s premise: U.S. corporations are gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into developing enough compute power for AI. He predicted that “from the shale fields of Pennsylvania to the solar farms of Nevada, hundreds of millions of GPUs will hum. The AGI race has begun.”

The 23-year-old founder’s strategy on investing is to bet on global stocks that could benefit from the development of AI technology, such as chip, data center and power companies.

Aschenbrenner also invests in other AI startups such as Anthropic. Offsetting these bets are short sales on industries that could get left behind, according to the Journal.

The results? Situation Awareness booked a return of 47% in the first half of 2025, after fees. That compares to a 6% gain for the S&P 500, including dividends, in the same period. The WSJ said an index of tech hedge funds compiled by PivotalPath returned 7% in the same timeframe.

See also: Smart Spending: How AI Is Transforming Financial Decision Making

Fired From OpenAI

AI is reshaping enterprise financial management, with more than eight in 10 CFOs already using or considering its adoption for their accounts payable functions, according to a PYMNTS Intelligence report.

Now, AI startups are getting the attention of venture capitalists (VC). In the first half of the year, AI startups raised $104.3 billion, while VC-based exits topped $36 billion, according to CNBC, citing data from Pitchbook. The biggest investments included OpenAI’s $40 billion fundraise in March, Scale AI getting $14.3 billion from Meta and Anthropic raising $3.5 billion.

Aschenbrenner, who is from Germany, used to work at OpenAI but was “pushed out,” according to the WSJ.

The startup’s main investors are Patrick and John Collison, co-founders of Stripe; former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman; and Daniel Gross, co-founder of Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI). Gross left SSI to join Meta’s superintelligence team.

The WSJ said that many investors also agreed to lock up their money in Situational Awareness for years, another sign of confidence.

“We’re going to have way more situational awareness than any of the people who manage money in New York,” Aschenbrenner reportedly said on a podcast with influencer and author Dwarkesh Patel in June 2024. “We’re definitely going to do great on investing.”

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