Tariffs Expose Growing Resiliency Divide Across Mid-Market Supply Chains

Tariffs are doing more than reshaping trade flows across the global marketplace. They are becoming a stress test for business models, with trade policy and regulatory uncertainty increasingly acting as amplifiers of both advantage and vulnerability.

The latest findings in the October 2025 edition of the PYMNTS Intelligence 2025 Certainty Project, done in collaboration with HSBC, lay bare a widening resilience gap across the U.S. middle-market. For many businesses, the shock of sudden tariff costs has exposed the fragility of globalized supply chains that have traditionally been built and optimized with efficiency as the north star.

The report, “Who’s Hit Hardest: Tariffs Widen the Business Resilience Gap,” found that where exposure to international suppliers is high, firms are confronting regulatory uncertainty, input-cost inflation, shrinking margins and brittle confidence.

Over nine in 10 high-reliance firms (93%) said their foreign suppliers have increased prices, and 60% said they have experienced delays or reduced reliability of supply.

By contrast fewer than half of low-reliance firms reported such issues. Where exposure is low, firms are better placed to navigate the terrain with greater adaptability, stronger margins, more confidence and more forward-leaning strategy.

It’s a story of resiliency. The difference is not simply financial but structural. Firms that can adjust their supply networks quickly are treating tariffs as another variable to manage, while those dependent on stressed sourcing and procurement are increasingly struggling to adapt.

Navigating the New Business Fault Line

The existing resiliency divide is becoming self-reinforcing. Resilient firms, flush with confidence, invest more aggressively in automation and analytics, widening their advantage. Exposed firms, more constrained by uncertainty, may be forced to delay decisions and fall further behind. The gap is becoming a feature of the mid-market landscape.

Nearly half of all CFO respondents said that the combination of regulatory ad macroeconomic uncertainty has already reduced their customer demand. Among high-import firms, 91% reported declines in B2B demand and 86% B2C demand.

But understanding the divide is only the first step; acting on it requires reframing resilience as strategy, not insurance. The report found that three principles are emerging among firms that are navigating the turbulence successfully.

First, diversification beats prediction. No one can forecast policy swings accurately, but diversified supply networks cushion the blow. Second, data visibility matters more than distance. Real-time insight into supplier performance and cost drivers allows firms to adjust before disruptions metastasize. Third, culture counts. Organizations that reward agility, where procurement, finance, and operations collaborate rather than compete, can ultimately adapt faster when conditions change.

The good news is that tariffs have made resilience, in some ways, more measurable. In quarterly earnings calls, CFOs now discuss supply-chain flexibility alongside EBITDA.

Still, scale matters. Mid-market firms occupy an uncomfortable position: large enough to have significant global supply-chain exposure but often lacking the bargaining power, logistical reach or risk-hedging capacity of multinationals.

Read the report: Who’s Hit Hardest: Tariffs Widen the Business Resilience Gap

Crucially, strategic flexibility matters. It’s here where many mid-market firms can find themselves constrained. Firms with significant import exposure often have less room to maneuver their sourcing, find alternative suppliers or restructure their operations quickly, especially where contracts, inventory commitments or downstream dependencies make abrupt change painful.

For import-exposed firms this means understanding true exposure, stress-testing supply chains, renegotiating supplier contracts, evaluating alternative sourcing (near-shoring, dual sourcing, domestic replacement), and rethinking pricing strategy in the face of rising input cost are becoming table stakes in mitigating risk.

Organizational culture also plays a role. Firms that integrate procurement, finance and operations decision-making can adapt more quickly when conditions change. Shared dashboards and cross-departmental teams allow for coordinated responses, whether it is reallocating budgets, adjusting pricing or renegotiating supplier terms without delay.