Instant Payments and Mobile Commerce Drive Banking’s Q4 Agenda

As inflation, interest-rate swings and economic uncertainty converge, banks and credit unions (CUs) have demonstrated notable resilience. They are continuing to innovate digitally, enhance risk controls and evolve service models to meet shifting consumer and business needs.

Fall is settling in, financial institutions (FIs) large and small have the opportunity to help customers grapple with macro pressures. Below are five trends to watch as we move into the final quarter of 2025.

Inflation-Savvy Support for Consumers

Consumer inflation expectations remain elevated, though we’re well below recent highs. As reported at the end of September, consumers see inflation at roughly 4% to 6% through the next year. Meanwhile, planned household spending growth slipped to 5% from 5.2% recently, and fewer expect easier credit availability (10.6% vs. 12.1%).

Banks and credit unions can support consumers by offering budgeting tools, personalized advice and flexible installment or pay-later structures. PYMNTS Intelligence finds many CU members facing financial stress value tailored financial wellness offerings and support tools as 63% of members use their CU-issued cards to purchase groceries, and 37% use them to cover utility bills.

Real-Time Payments Take Center Stage

PYMNTS Intelligence shows consumers and small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) now expect reliability alongside speed, prompting banks to pursue multi-rail strategies that balance both.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian networks continue expanding ceilings: FedNow doubled its cap from $500,000 to $1 million, and The Clearing House enabled on-behalf-of transactions, opening high-value use cases like payroll, B2B and real estate transfers. Consumers are even willing to pay fees for instant payouts, especially younger or financially constrained users (27% slightly and 20% much higher).

Strengthening Fraud Defenses

Although many institutions remain wary of real-time payment fraud, PYMNTS Intelligence found fraud is actually 31× more likely on checks than on real-time rails. Still, nearly 28% of consumers experienced credit card fraud last year, and 37% report high concern, while 90% of those whose banks proactively addressed fraud were very satisfied.

Banks should consider next-gen tools like tap-to-authenticate metal cards (preferred by 77% of FI respondents vs. 25% for plastic options) to curb credential-based fraud. Behavioral analytics and consortium data sharing (minimalist and privacy-respecting) can amplify detection, as experts argue fraud response demands human oversight and shared signals across institutions.

Intelligent AI With Human Oversight

Banks are embedding conversational AI and agentic AI capabilities to power customer engagement, risk modeling, fraud detection and compliance tasks. Institutions from JPMorgan to SoFi now use conversational AI to nudge customers and scale service. AI agents reportedly free up compliance officers from form-filling work (85% of tasks), becoming a scalable competitive advantage. Yet experts caution against leaning too hard on AI without robust human-led data intelligence; proven legacy and vetted alternative data should underpin model decisions.

Banks are embedding conversational AI and agentic AI into everything from customer service to risk modeling and compliance workflows. Across Q2 earnings, institutions like U.S. Bank highlighted AI-driven payment infrastructure investments aimed at modernizing operations. Meanwhile, nCino reported subscription revenue growth of 15%, and said its agentic AI-expanded Banking Advisor product is already deployed across more than 80 institutions.

The Digital Shift: Mobile Banking Takes Priority

Recent earnings commentary from major banks, including JPMorgan and Capital One, reaffirm the ongoing shift toward mobile and digital channels, with Zelle transaction volumes now surpassing checks and ATM withdrawals at Bank of America.

PYMNTS Intelligence research finds nearly half of consumers use mobile banking weekly, with Gen Z and small businesses relying on app-based onboarding, instant card issuance and mobile credit tools. High-performing credit unions now achieve 92% digital onboarding and 85% mobile card issuance adoption, advantages not seen at lower-performing peers.