Retail Federation: Imports Will Surge During Tariff Pause

The National Retail Federation is projecting a summertime surge in U.S. import cargo.

The uptick, the federation (NRF) said in a news release Monday (June 9), will happen as retailers take advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs imposed on China.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in the release.

“Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”

Gold added that while retailers want to make sure consumers can still find the products they’re seeking at affordable prices, there is still “considerable uncertainty” about what happens when the 90 days are up. The NRF is calling on the White House to continue negotiating with trading partners to “restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”

The NRF also notes that many retailers suspended or canceled orders after the Trump administration imposed a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports once tariffs were reduced to 30% following the 90-day pause.

“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” said Ben Hackett, whose firm, Hackett Associates, conducted the import research with the NRF.

“However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”

Meanwhile, a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta finds that business executives don’t feel they can pass on the full cost of tariffs to their customers the way they did the last time higher duties were imposed in 2018.

The survey found “a diversity of views” among businesses, although companies on average said they believe they can pass through 51.1% of a 10% cost increase and 47.3% of a 25% cost increase without cutting the current level of demand for products or services.

“Compared to the 2018 episode, where research suggests nearly full pass-through of costs into prices, our results suggest many firms believe their customers are price-sensitive enough this time around (perhaps owing to the recent inflationary surge that isn’t too far in the rearview mirror) that they cannot pass through the entire cost increase without reducing demand,” the researchers wrote.