NFIB: Small Business Optimism Rises Despite Uncertainty Around Tariffs

Small business owners grew more optimistic in May as they reported improvements in their expected business conditions and sales expectations, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8 in May, three points higher than it was in April and above the 51-year average of 98, the organization said in a Tuesday (June 10) press release.

At the same time, the Uncertainty Index rose to 94, two points higher than April, according to the release.

“Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in the release. “While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth.”

The share of business owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 percentage points from April to May to reach 25%, while the share expecting higher real sales volume increased 11 percentage points to reach 10%, according to the report.

The report attributed the rise in uncertainty among small business owners to unresolved issues around tariffs and President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

“Congress hasn’t passed the Big Beautiful Bill yet, and Trump is still messing with tariffs, the uncertainty level is rising,” the report said. “While tariffs might be a bumpy road while countries negotiate trade deals, Congress can do their part by passing the BBB sooner rather than later to take that piece of uncertainty off the table.”

The PYMNTS Intelligence SMB Growth Report, “Brewing Storm: Why 1 in 5 Smaller Businesses Without Financing Fear They May Not Survive Tariffs,” found in early February that the changes around global tariffs created a volatile operating environment that is severely pressuring some small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs).

S&P Global said May 22 that American business activity and sentiment improved in May but remained muted amid ongoing tariff turmoil.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said at the time that “at least some of the upturn in May can be linked to companies and their customers seeking to front-run further possible tariff-related issues, most notably the potential for future tariff hikes after the 90-day pause lapses in July.”

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