Paycheck-to-Paycheck Households Say Job Prospects Are Dimming

Even before the latest job numbers were released on Friday (Sept. 5), PYMNTS Intelligence had been busy uncovering the ways in which various households—across income levels and whether they’d been living paycheck to paycheck—viewed their job prospects.

In a nutshell, they weren’t exactly sanguine at the end of last month.

Friday’s data will do little to change those mindsets.

We surveyed more than 1,330 individuals, all of them gainfully employed, to log what they thought about the chances of finding suitable employment through the next few months, should they seek to look for new opportunities. In this context, “suitable” means a position that would meet both that would-be candidate’s qualification and desired incomes.

Muted Assessments of the Market are Nearly Universal

No segment, as defined by income level, or by state of living paycheck to paycheck (or not), showed a majority as saying that finding such a role would be “very or extremely” likely. In most cases, as seen in the chart below, the majority of respondents said there was at best a slim chance of landing that role, and in reality it would be a “not at all” likely scenario.

That holds true with all respondents making less than $50,000 annually. And perhaps surprisingly, a significant 45% of those making more than $100,000 annually who do not live paycheck to paycheck said that they’d envisioned similar constraints on finding a suitable role.

The Latest Data

Data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the unemployment reached a multi-year high at 4.3% in August, up slightly from July and June. We have to go back as far as October 2021 to find a higher register (4.5%). Among the unemployed, the percent of new entrants (unemployed people who are looking for their first job) fell back to 10.8%, down from the decade high 13.4% of July but still high on a historical perspective.

July employment gains were slim (+22,000) and below the gains registered in July (+79,000) and the average for Q2 2025 (+93,000), although performance was somewhat better when looking at private industries alone (+38,000).

In August, healthcare added 31,000 jobs and was the top positive contributor, although the sector stands below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months. Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) amid shuttering and streamlining of various departments and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January.

Wholesale trade employment continued to trend down in August (-12,000) and has fallen by 32,000 since May. Manufacturing employment changed little in August (-12,000) but is down by 78,000 over the year. Those sectors would be the ones most likely to employ the lower-earning workers noted above.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.3% to $36.53 in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%. This surpasses the 2.6% yearlong increase in prices for as measured by the PCE, so wages are (slightly outpacing) prices.

The overall sentiment on employment is captured in the chart below, showing a sharp uptick in respondents stating that it would be slightly or not at all likely to move into a new position.