Heard About The Calexit?

There is a long and glorious tradition in the United States of the people of the United States threatening to move to Canada in the event a Presidential election doesn’t turn out quite their way. It really doesn’t matter which election in which year, as for at least the last 20, Americans have been leveling that threat.

It’s mostly an idle threat, too. There is a lot to love about Canada — Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Quebec — all are lovely cities. But Canada is a lot colder than the U.S. It’s also wetter and more sparsely populated and has higher taxes, and it’s really expensive to become a Canadian citizen. One can live as an expat — but that often requires filing two tax returns (a Canadian and a U.S.) and paying a series of additional fees. Which might be hard, since jobs are more scarce and some goods (like gasoline) are a good deal more expensive.

You also can’t use your Visa card at Walmart.

So as much bravado as that threat conveys, when push comes to shove, the only observable massive uptick is the number of Google searches on the subject.

This year, a different sentiment has emerged. Why leave a perfectly good neighborhood and neighbors when all one has to do is convince those neighbors to secede from the Union?

That’s the populist movement — handily coined the Calexit — that Hyperloop cofounder Shervin Pishevar is organizing.

It’s not the first movement of its kind. Texas has threatened a “Texit” on and off now for the past 148 years, and Alaska actually has a political party with the independent nationhood of Alaska as its only platform plank (Alaskit?). It’s called the Alaska Freedom Party — and, fun piece of trivia, Todd Palin was a member (long before his wife was a vice presidential candidate).

But Calexit seems, at least so far, to be gaining a bit of steam — and reflects an issue that’s been bubbling up for some time now. And since everything needs a catalyst, the Trump win on Tuesday night was the spark that Pishevar appeared to have needed to firm up his plans.

Why Calexit?

According to Pishevar, the issue is not solely about Donald Trump. It also has to do with his view that California’s vital importance to the nation is being undercut by being systemically undervalued in the electoral college. And so organizing a “Calexit” is the most patriotic thing that the citizens of California can do.

“The most patriotic thing to do is questioning the idea of a federation of states and calling a new constitutional convention for systemic change,” Pishevar said.

California as a separate nation would be between the sixth and eleventh largest economy in the world, depending on how one calculates the cost of living.

But Pishevar doesn’t really want to leave America forever. He imagines more of a “temporary withdrawal” rather than a permanent exit — followed by a return after some demands are met.

Calexit-Mini?

“Removing the Electoral College would be one of the changes needed,” Pishevar tweeted, suggesting that until the Electoral College is disbanded, fellow Calexiters would hold their breath until they turned blue. (Pun intended, of course.)

“Small states with little diversity shouldn’t determine the presidency,” Pishevar stated.

And while the actual serious support for the movement is hard to count, the Twitterverse is certainly enthused.

“We’ll just take our avocados and legal weed and go #CalExit #CalifrEXIT,” wrote one Calexiter.

Why It’s All Just Silly Talk

Legally speaking, leaving the Union is not so easy. An 1868 court decision (against Texas) found that secession was possible only through the consent of the State — or by successful revolution. Calexit is a nonviolent campaign, which means in order to secede, there would be a lot of legal legwork in persuading the rest of the nation that it really should let California go discover itself for a while — and take the Silicon Valley, Hollywood and most of the western coastline with it.

Also, tragically man cannot live on avocados and legal weed alone — and the economic difficulties in splintering California from interstate trade agreement make the exit look only moderately less complicated than the Pitt-Jolie divorce. Calexit would only be possible if it received support from the mainstream voters.

Even Silicon Valley is conflicted. A survey taken by TechCrunch reflected a rather forward-looking outlook. Some were truly sad about Trump, others were neutral and others still were pretty darn excited. Despite the personal conflict, all were united in the idea that politics is a sideline to their main interest — innovating and pushing the borders of what’s possible in the greatest country in the world.

And so far the ascension of Donald Trump hasn’t hit tech too hard. The NASDAQ — home of many luminary tech stocks — was up considerably in Wednesday’s post-election rally, and though it gave some of that back midday Thursday, it has closed up each day since. Plus, some prominent venture capitalists note that a pro-business administration with a more minimalist take on regulation could be very good for startups and innovators. As Bradley Tusk of Tusk Holdings pointed out, “the odds of seeing an activist tough on business cabinet members pursue regulatory actions are lower.”

Notably, the promise of a lighter regulatory load going forward has been sufficient to send banking stocks up all week — as the Trump administration has strongly signaled that it intends to the loosen the regulatory bonds of Dodd-Frank.

The jury is still out on the administration, but clearly Americans businesses and banks are much more ready to wait and see than flee for the hills.

And so, despite some very lively tweets, some lurid CNN coverage and a rather colorful hashtag, it is probably safe to assume that the Calexit will not be coming anytime soon.