‘Uncertainty’ Talk on Earnings Calls Jumps 49% on Tariff Concerns

The specter of tariff-related uncertainty continues to haunt corporate quarterly earnings calls.

The term “uncertainty” appeared in 35% of first-quarter calls, jumping 49% from the prior quarter, Seeking Alpha reported Saturday (May 10), citing data from IoT Analytics.

Trade tensions played a key role in more than 8,000 calls analyzed by IoT, the report added, as President Donald Trump’s tariff tactics triggered murky economic forecasts.

References to “tariffs” appeared on 43% of the calls — a 190% increase from the fourth quarter of last year. And because of this uncertainty, the report added, companies seem to be more cautious about hiring, as references to recruiting dipped 8%.

IoT also found that several CEOs were worried that levies on imported products could increase U.S. prices. However, some business leaders saw bright spots, anticipating home-grown producers to enjoy an edge as their competitors hiked prices.

The report comes days ahead of the latest Consumer Price Index inflation reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As PYMNTS wrote last week, this report could show “what could arguably be the calm before a stormy sea of inflation driven by volatile tariffs.”

Economists and a wide range of financial media estimate the inflation reading will come in at 0.2% and translate to an annualized pace of 2.5%. The April figures would reverse a decline recorded in March.

“The annual inflation rate was 2.4% with the March report baked in; the read-across will be that inflation may tick up a bit,” PYMNTS wrote. “It’s the granular details that matter. Beyond the headline number, digging into the various expense categories will give insight into where the pressures lie and where they could mount.”

The past several CPI reports have shown everyday essentials such as food  and shelter getting more expensive.

And research from PYMNTS Intelligence has estimated that essential spending cuts into more than 70% of a consumer’s paycheck. The report “Struggling Consumers Go to Short-Term Strategies to Manage Higher Expenses” found rents have been climbing, a phenomenon mentioned by half of the people surveyed.

“April’s data will take into account only a few weeks of tariff impact, and price hikes may not be showing up fully yet,” PYMNTS added. “Many merchants have cited passing increased costs along to consumers as a strategy that may be inevitable.”

Additional PYMNTS research has found that 26% of small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) anticipate higher prices as a response to tariffs, though just 9% said they would employ that strategy as a first line of defense.