DoorDash Projected to Reach 20% of US Restaurants by 2035

DoorDash has not yet announced the launch of a point-of-sale (POS) device.

But such a move could pose a threat to restaurant-focused payments companies like Toast, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday (May 12), citing an analysis from investment advisor Rothschild & Co Redburn’s Dominic Ball.

“While it may appear early to forecast a product that DoorDash has not formally announced, our conviction comes from extensive channel checks, product evidence, hiring activity and merchant feedback,” Ball wrote in a note. “As we forecast DoorDash to scale from 0% to 20% of US restaurant locations by 2035, its expansion could pressure Toast’s win rates.”

PYMNTS has reached out to DoorDash for comment. A company spokesperson acknowledged receipt of the request but has not yet offered a further response.

As Bloomberg notes, DoorDash — already America’s largest food delivery app — has been eyeing expansions into international markets, delivery robots and categories like grocery, electronics, apparel and car parts.

The company launched a smart scale last year to help restaurants weigh orders before they are handed to drivers to cut down missing-item claims. Also in 2025, the company acquired restaurant reservation tech company SevenRooms for $1.2 billion.

PYMNTS wrote last week about DoorDash’s first-quarter earnings call, which showed the company’s gross order value reaching $31.6 billion, a 37% increase year over year. DoorDash’s DashPass program and monthly active user numbers both hit record highs.

As that report pointed out, the company used its earnings call to focus on the same argument it made in Q4: “The next leg of competition in local commerce runs through whoever delivers the best end-to-end experience,” the report said. “CEO Tony Xu said customers judge platforms on whether they got the exact item they ordered.”

Meanwhile, PYMNTS wrote earlier this year about efforts by restaurants to win their customers back from platforms like DoorDash.

While the delivery world is not likely to return to the pre-platform era, that report said, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven commerce and retail solutions could usher in an era where restaurants are more than just passive participants.

“In an agent ordering world, you’re going to be ordering from your TV, from your car, from your phone,” Savneet Singh, CEO of PAR Technology, told PYMNTS in an interview in March, adding that those orders can connect directly to the restaurant rather than passing through third-party marketplaces.

“That means the restaurant has the data, understands the customer’s preferences, and doesn’t pay a toll to another platform,” Singh said.