US Small Businesses Expect Improved Conditions for 2026

Despite concerns about taxes and supply chains, American small business owners are optimistic about 2026.

That’s according to the latest monthly findings from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), released Tuesday (Jan. 13) and showing that 24% of business owners expect better business conditions this year, the first increase since July.

“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism,” Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, said in a news release.

“While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”

The findings showed that 20% of small business owners identified taxes as their most vexing issue, up 6 points from the previous month and the highest reading since May of 2021. A seasonally adjusted 33% of all small business owners said they had job openings they were unable to fill in last month, above the historical average of 24%.

Meanwhile, 64% of small business owners said supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some extent, a figure that was unchanged from November.

“Beneath simple yes/no impact binary, there was a positive shift from those reporting a significant impact to those reporting a moderate or mild impact,” the report added.

This uptick in small business optimism follows a year in which nearly 7% of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) expressed pessimism about their chances of remaining open over the next two years, per PYMNT Intelligence research.

Jonathan Aguilar, associate vice president of Partner Experience at Maverick Payments, told PYMNTS in an interview in December that the challenges have caused SMBs to rethink their priorities rather than go after aggressive expansion.

SMBs have “to prioritize their cost control and cash flow,” he said.

“With tariff turbulence and macro uncertainty around interest rates and the cost of capital, the difference between survival and shutdown often comes down to cash flow timing and visibility, not long-term viability, for SMBs operating on thin margins,” PYMNTS wrote earlier this week.

“For much of the last decade, SMBs operated in a forgiving environment. Low rates extended runways and consumers spent freely. Although capital was never abundant for small firms, it was available enough to cover timing mismatches. That cushion has increasingly disappeared.”