Mastercard SpendingPulse: Back-to-School Retail Sales May Grow 7.5% in 2022

Many retail spending reports these days show consumers tightening their belts and focusing their spending on food, gas and other necessities, but the Mastercard SpendingPulse report for May shows a 10.5% year-over-year retail sales growth for the month — and more good news ahead.

“The continued retail sales momentum in May aligns with the sustained growth rates we’ve seen so far this year,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. Chief Economist, Mastercard Economics Institute, in the press release Tuesday (June 14).

“The consumer has been resilient, spending on goods and increasingly services as the economy continues to rebalance. That said, headwinds have become stronger — including gains in prices for necessities like gas and food, as well as higher interest rates,” she said.

The May retail sales report will come out Wednesday (June 15) at 8:30 a.m.

SpendingPulse, which measures non-adjusted in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payments, forecast a 7.5% growth in U.S. retail sales from mid-July through Labor Day during the so-called back-to-school shopping period. Sales are predicted to jump 18.3% from 2019, led by a notable uptick in department store sales, the report said.

“Back-to-school is the second biggest season for retailers and is often looked at as an early indicator of retail momentum ahead of the traditional holiday season,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks Incorporated, in the news release.

“While Mastercard SpendingPulse anticipates growth across sectors, retailers will need to find innovative ways to entice shoppers as discretionary spending potentially stretches thin as a result of increasing prices,” he said.

Mastercard Spending Pulse sees in-store experiences, a continued rebound of department stores and busy social calendars leading to more apparel sales as the top trends heading into the back-to-school shopping season.

Related: PYMNTS Data: Consumers Switch to Lower-Priced Grocery Brands, Merchants

Research from the May U.S. edition of PYMNTS’ Digital Economy Payments study, “Digital Economy Payments: How Consumers Pay in the Digital World,” showed that consumers’ average spending on their grocery purchases fell between March and April, even as food prices themselves continued to rise, indicating that consumers were likely making the choice to shift to lower-priced brands or products.