Shipping Downturn Masks Strong Demand for Consumer Goods

Importers in the United States are anticipating favorable deals as they negotiate their ocean shipping contracts for 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (Feb. 26).

Shipping specialists said supply is exceeding demand when it comes to container space, causing importers to lobby for 10% to 15% reductions to their contract rates, according to the report.

Early 2026 cargo volumes are forecasted to trail those of 2025, the report said, citing data from the Port of Los Angeles, while the National Retail Federation projected a 2% nationwide downturn in import volumes for the first half of this year.

However, while the industry expects cargo volumes to fall, the figures mask a strong demand for goods among consumers, according to the report. This year’s forecast is being compared to an unusual uptick in imports at the beginning of 2025, when companies were scrambling to stock up in advance of new tariffs.

Logistics and supply chain specialists said that higher earners are fueling consumer demand, helped by elevated home values and a healthy stock market.

During Walmart’s latest earnings call Feb. 19, CEO John Furner said much of the company’s market share gains came from households earning more than $100,000 a year.

New government data showed that consumer spending has persisted, even as consumers take a more cautious posture, PYMNTS reported Friday (Feb. 20).

“Households are not withdrawing from the economy,” the report said. “They are reallocating. Services, which include housing, healthcare, travel and dining, are absorbing a greater share of wallet, while discretionary goods purchases show signs of constraint.”

Research from the January Wage to Wallet Index underlined the uneven financial backdrop guiding these decisions. Labor Economy workers, or those who earn $25 per hour or less, represent more than 1 in 3 U.S. employees and drive 15.1% of total spending, the equivalent of more than $1.7 trillion per year.

However, this group’s financial outlook remains guarded. Just 29.4% of Labor Economy workers said they expect their personal financial situation to improve this year, while 27.2% said they anticipate falling behind financially.

“Income expectations help explain the divergence,” the report said. “About half of Labor Economy workers foresee their pay remaining unchanged in 2026, while nearly half expect monthly expenses to rise. Savings projections follow a similar pattern, with nearly one-quarter expecting lower savings balances by year end.”