Tariff Anxiety and 6% Revenue Loss Define CFO Risk Premium

For corporate finance chiefs, the most expensive line item on this year’s balance sheets may not be tariffs or wages, but uncertainty itself.

The latest PYMNTS Intelligence Data Book, Policy Risk, Tariff Impact and the Price of CFO Uncertainty, finds that volatility across trade, regulation and global supply chains has turned unpredictability into a quantifiable drag on performance.

The October 2025 report, part of PYMNTS Intelligence’s Certainty Project, surveyed 60 U.S. CFOs at middle-market firms earning between $100 million and $1 billion annually. It shows that price increases have failed to protect margins, demand is weakening and the cost of uncertainty, while lower than last year’s peak, still weighs heavily on corporate revenue. The findings portray a financial landscape where CFOs can plan for higher costs but not for chaos.

Key data points from the report include:

Global exposure multiplies uncertainty. Six in 10 CFOs whose companies source 30% or more of their inputs from abroad operate under high regulatory uncertainty. That’s four times the rate of firms that source less than 15%. Cross-border suppliers, once seen as efficiency plays, have become flashpoints for policy risk.

Pricing power is losing its punch. Seventy-five percent of CFOs raised prices in the past year, yet 60% still saw profit margins fall. Among globally exposed firms, margin erosion was nearly double that of their domestic peers, underscoring how input volatility and logistics costs undercut pricing strategies.

Demand is slowing, especially overseas. Roughly half of CFOs report weaker customer demand, climbing to nine in 10 among firms with international operations. The slowdown is sharper in B2B markets than consumer sectors, raising credit and working-capital risks across trade and receivables.

Other findings in the report add dimension to the pressures CFOs face. Nearly all globally connected firms (93%) reported supplier price increases, and financially weaker companies were twice as likely to experience both higher costs and reliability issues.

It’s a “double hit” that complicates inventory financing and service levels.

Policy sentiment is also shifting. More than half of surveyed CFOs said an “America First” trade policy would hurt the U.S. economy.

Concern rises to roughly two-thirds among goods producers and to 80% among companies heavily reliant on overseas suppliers, suggesting that tariff expansion could further delay capital investment and supplier diversification plans.

The regulatory picture remains unsettled. Among firms already operating under high policy uncertainty, 83% said it produced operational disruptions in the past 12 months from delayed strategic decisions to higher compliance costs.

The downstream impact extends to banks and FinTech partners, who face longer onboarding timelines and greater variability in program governance.

Still, there are faint signs of relief. Companies now estimate that uncertainty costs them about 6% of annual revenue, down from a 17% peak in early 2024. Across the full sample, the drag averages 3%. That decline shows adaptation, not resolution.

CFOs are adjusting forecasts, tightening liquidity cushions and renegotiating supplier terms to manage what has effectively become the risk premium of modern corporate finance.

If inflation was the dominant cost story of the past three years, uncertainty has become the new one. It’s harder to measure, tougher to hedge and, for many firms, just as expensive.