Built to Bend: How Companies Are Shouldering Tariffs

The entrenched volatility of the United States’ ever-shifting tariffs strategy has become part of the structure of the nation’s economy, with major implications for consumer spending. So have ambiguity and unpredictability. Will certain levies increase further? Decrease? Be delayed? Scrapped altogether? What new tariffs might unfold?

The sure bet that uncertainty is now feature, not a bug, means that companies have had to pivot quickly to cope with sudden changes in demand, higher capital costs and supply chain reconfigurations.

The nation’s average effective tariff rate rose to 10.65% in September, up from 2.2% since the start of last year, according to the most recent analysis from the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model. Amid that nearly fivefold increase, with Chinese imports bearing the brunt, the PYMNTS Intelligence Certainty Project tracked how middle-market companies coped with tariff-related uncertainty over the course of the year.

As of November 2025, it found that nearly 6 in 10 CFOs at middle-market firms reported facing at least a medium level of uncertainty about the state of their business operations. The majority (52%) said their firm’s performance last year fell short of expectations.

So what has success looked like so far? First and foremost, it has required building an operating system capable of absorbing shocks quickly.

Certainty as a Capability

When companies today think about certainty, it’s in terms of the ability to operate now. That means fast decision-making, strong control of liquidity and measures to protect margins. That’s why the most resilient firms have prioritized near-term visibility (by mapping their exposure across suppliers, products, shipping lanes and currencies), optionality (creating backup plans for sourcing, logistics and production), and governance (centralizing information and giving teams access to the same real-time data).

One major way companies are creating more certainty for themselves is by rethinking their supply chains.

Apple began a push in April to shift production toward India away from China to reduce its exposure to tariffs. By the end of this year, the technology giant aims to have all U.S.-bound iPhones coming in from the South Asian subcontinent.

Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Asus said in an earnings call in August that it had moved more than 90% of its production of personal computers and motherboards destined for the U.S. market outside of China, relocating to Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.

In June, General Motors announced a $4 billion investment to move production to the United States over the next couple of years.

Proactive firms aren’t just leaving China — they’re also designing multinode supply and manufacturing footprints so they can redirect flows as policy shifts.

Of course, not every company can afford, logistics- or cost-wise, to move factories. Still, many can pull trade-structure levers that materially change their exposure to the duties, expense timing and magnitude. For example, they can use duty drawback to recoup up to 99% of duties levied on products later exported or destroyed, according to trade lawyers.

Targeted Pricing Actions

Stanley Black & Decker implemented a high-single-digit price increase in April, planned a second increase and paired these pricing actions with shifts in its supply chain. On its most recent earnings call, the company said it was focusing these increases on affected product families rather than its entire portfolio.

Toymaker Hasbro has its own targeted pricing actions. CEO Chris Cocks said in October that the company has been “pretty surgical” in how it applies increases, focusing on keeping about half its product prices under $20.

All of those pricing shifts require faster data on-demand elasticity, channel behavior and inventory positioning.

Smarter Scenario Planning

Amid the shift in global trade policy, companies are tapping into artificial intelligence. Walmart Chief Accounting Officer David Chojnowski told Deloitte that the retail giant has been stepping up its scenario-planning capabilities. “We’re able to use AI to understand market trends and correlate those trends and other competitors’ decisions with ours in a way that we haven’t been able to in the past.”

The changes reflect a quickening by some companies of the decision-making process protect cash and margins now. In 2026, certainty will look less like confidence and more like capability.

At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.