Tariff Refunds Create a New Test for Middle Market Resilience

On the face of it, tariff refunds are slated to restore cash to firms. Instead, for many middle market firms, it has introduced a different question: who can wait?

PYMNTS Intelligence findings suggest that uncertainty has changed form without loosening its grip. In “Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High,” part of The Certainty Project, business leaders reported that forecasting conditions remain difficult despite expectations for improvement. In March 2026, 27% of heads of payments said their firms faced high business uncertainty, while among goods companies that figure climbed to 47%. At the same time, 72% expected conditions to improve over the next year.

That combination of optimism and operational strain comes against a backdrop where middle market firms do not experience volatility equally. Across respondents, the financing burden tied to uncertainty averaged 2.9% of revenue over the prior year, while firms reporting high uncertainty experienced costs of 6.2%, more than double the average. The findings point to a widening separation between firms that can absorb disruption internally and those relying on external funding to maintain ordinary operating cycles.

Tariff Refunds Are Revealing a Liquidity Divide

The tariff refund process now sits inside that broader divide.

For firms with strong cash positions and disciplined treasury functions, refunds represent deferred liquidity. They can carry inventory, extend planning horizons and wait for recovery. For others, delayed reimbursement translates into higher revolver usage, tighter borrowing windows and greater pressure on accounts receivable collection.

The operational issue ties into timing. Inventory turns, customer payment behavior and procurement decisions become harder to sequence when recovery periods stretch beyond planning assumptions.

That pressure becomes more visible in new court filings.

According to a Tuesday (May 26) declaration filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it created a new capability within the Automated Commercial Environment, called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE, to calculate and process valid refunds of additional ad valorem duties imposed under IEEPA authorities.

The declaration states that as of May 22, importers had submitted 157,402 CAPE declarations and 108,760 passed file validation requirements. Those accepted filings covered 15.9 million entries.

The scale is substantial, but so is the friction.

CBP told the court that approximately $85 billion in potential and certified refunds had been accepted for processing. Of that amount, roughly $20.6 billion in refunds, including interest, had been completed, certified and transmitted to Treasury for payment while additional refunds remained under review.

The filing also acknowledged operational bottlenecks. More than 4,100 consolidated refunds had not been transmitted because Automated Clearing House account information had not been supplied by importers or their authorized designees.

Those details underscore a broader point for finance teams.

Tariff refunds increasingly reward firms that can compress treasury decision cycles. Visibility into receivables, automated reconciliation, treasury workstations, ERP-linked cash forecasting, API-based bank reporting and faster exception handling become practical tools rather than efficiency projects.

PYMNTS Intelligence data points in the same direction. Forecasting pressure remains concentrated among goods businesses because volatility reaches procurement, inventory and financing simultaneously. Firms that shorten the distance between transaction data and cash decisions appear better positioned to absorb uncertainty without converting routine operations into borrowing events.

Tariff refunds may return cash … eventually. But the question for the middle market is increasingly whether firms can afford the wait.