December Labor Economy Wage Gains Could Add $32 Billion to GDP, Even as Worker Confidence Lags

“Wage to Wallet™ Index: The Divided Recovery: Labor Economy Workers Face an Uncertain 2026” is a collaboration between PYMNTS Intelligence, WorkWhile and Ingo Payments. This month’s report examines the financial outlook of the Labor Economy—roughly 60 million U.S. employees who earn about $25 an hour or less and form the on-the-ground workforce that keeps production, distribution and service delivery running.

The report’s central finding is that the recovery feels divided: Wage gains and GDP headlines may be improving, but many Labor Economy workers are entering 2026 focused on maintaining their footing. Their confidence has been persistently lower than that of non-Labor Economy workers—roughly 50 versus 57 on the Wage to Wallet Index—and the pressure points are clear: weaker savings expectations, limited room to reduce debt and a view that expenses are rising faster than pay.

The stakes extend beyond household budgets. Labor Economy workers represent 36.5% of U.S. employees and drive 15.1% of total U.S. spending, equivalent to more than $1.7 trillion a year, meaning their stability can influence everything from consumer demand to economic reliability.

The report also flags an overlay of job and skills anxiety as technology reshapes work. Roughly two-thirds of Labor Economy workers say they feel confident their skills will remain valuable as technology evolves, and many express concern about automation and job cuts. The report closes with practical implications for payments providers, banks and employers, including faster access to wages, easier automated saving and tools that connect financial stability with skill-building pathways.

In this report, learn how:

Labor Economy sentiment is staying stuck even when the economy looks better on paper. The report shows a persistent confidence gap relative to non-Labor Economy workers, driven by weaker views on saving, debt, and job mobility.

Flat pay expectations and rising expenses are shaping spending behavior in 2026. Roughly half of Labor Economy workers expect income to stay the same, while nearly half expect monthly expenses to rise, forcing tradeoffs that can shift consumption and payment patterns.

Technology anxiety is becoming a financial stability issue. The report details an “automation overhang,” with Labor Economy workers less confident that their skills will remain valuable and more likely to worry about layoffs and employer survival.

Download the “Wage to Wallet Index: The Divided Recovery: Labor Economy Workers Face an Uncertain 2026 ” to learn more.

Inside “Wage to Wallet Index: The Divided Recovery: Labor Economy Workers Face an Uncertain 2026”

The “Wage to Wallet Index” update combines consumer attitudinal measurement with segment-level comparisons between Labor Economy workers and non-Labor Economy workers. The Labor Economy is defined as a broad set of essential, hands-on roles—often paid hourly and typically earning $25/hour or less (commonly less than $50,000 annually)—that sit at the operational core of production, distribution and service delivery. The index tracks changes in sentiment over time and includes component measures referenced in the report, such as job security, job mobility, saving ability, and debt burden.

In parallel, PYMNTS Intelligence describes a proprietary economic model used to estimate the spending power and macroeconomic impact of the Labor Economy workforce. The model integrates official government data on consumer spending, income and labor force composition, mapped with demographic and occupational characteristics to isolate this workforce’s share of consumer outlays. It uses controlled interpolation and projection techniques tied to macroeconomic benchmarks to estimate aggregate spending and economic impact while keeping underlying calculations confidential. This report also draws on a complete survey of 2,879 U.S. adults conducted from Jan. 7, 2026, to Jan. 12, 2026.