WTO Says AI Could Bolster Global Trade by 40%

AI could transform trade by 2040, a new World Trade Organization (WTO) report finds.

With the right policies in place, artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, due to productivity gains and lower trade cost, the WTO said in its 2025 World Trade Report, released Wednesday (Sept. 17).

But without targeted investment in education and training, and inclusive policies, AI could worsen existing divides, the report said, leading to concerns that many workers, and whole economies, could be left behind.

“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala wrote in her foreword to the report. “However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven.

“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

The report posts a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50% and employ AI more widely, leading to projected income increases of 15% and 14% respectively.

In other AI news, PYMNTS wrote Wednesday about the angst felt among AI users about the technology’s potential to replace jobs, a fear held by one-third of those users.

“Much of the doom-and-gloom is coming straight from the horse’s mouth,” PYMNTS wrote. “In May, Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, told a Congressional hearing that AI could displace 70% of all jobs. That same month, the CEO of AI firm Anthropic, Dario Amodei, told Axios the technology could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and create unemployment of 10-20% within the next one to five years.”

But some economists have said it’s not that simple. A National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper published in January pointed to AI’s potential to become a disruptive technology, but also noted that it is “likely too early to assess its full impacts.”

“History teaches us that even if AI disrupts the labor market, its impact will unfold over many decades,” the NBER paper said.

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