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What is the Probability of Receiving a US Patent?

By  |  January 8, 2014

Posted by Social Science Research Network

What is the Probability of Receiving a US Patent? – Michael Carley (United States Patent and Trademark Office0, Deepak Hegde (New York University (NYU) – Leonard N. Stern School of Business) and Alan C. Marco (United States Patent and Trademark Office)

ABSTRACT: We follow the prosecution histories of the 2.15 million new patent applications filed at the US Patent and Trademark Office between 1996 and 2005 to calculate patent allowance rates. 55.8% of the applications emerged as patents without using continuation procedures to spawn related applications. The success rate of applications decreased substantially from 1996 to 2005, particularly for applications in the “Drugs and Medical Instruments” and “Computers and Communications” fields. We discuss the policy implications of our findings.