Stablecoins could evolve from a niche crypto tool into the dominant infrastructure for global payments within the next decade, with annual transaction volumes reaching as high as $1.5 quadrillion by 2035, according to a new report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.
The forecast underscores both the scale of the opportunity and the growing role of policymakers in shaping the trajectory of digital dollar adoption. It also highlights intensifying tensions between stablecoin issuers and traditional banks over the future of deposits, payments and financial intermediation.
Chainalysis estimates that stablecoins already processed $28 trillion in “real economic” transaction volume in 2025, with adjusted volumes—excluding speculative or automated activity—growing at a 133% compound annual rate since 2023.
Even without major structural changes, that growth trajectory alone would push annual volumes to roughly $719 trillion by 2035. But the firm argues that two macroeconomic shifts could more than double that figure.
The first is a historic intergenerational wealth transfer expected to move as much as $100 trillion from Baby Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z between 2028 and 2048. These younger cohorts are significantly more likely to use crypto as a default financial tool, with roughly half already having owned digital assets.
Chainalysis estimates this demographic shift alone could contribute an additional $508 trillion in annual stablecoin transaction volume by 2035.
The second catalyst is the integration of stablecoins into everyday commerce. As point-of-sale acceptance becomes widespread, stablecoins could transition from a specialized payment method to embedded financial infrastructure, adding another $232 trillion in annual volume.
Together, these forces would position stablecoins to surpass the roughly $1 quadrillion global cross-border payments market and potentially rival or exceed traditional card networks such as Visa and Mastercard sometime between 2031 and 2039.
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A central theme of the Chainalysis report, highlighted in reporting by Decrypt, is the increasingly constructive role of regulators in enabling this growth.
The report points to recent U.S. legislative developments, including the GENIUS Act signed into law last year, as evidence that policymakers are beginning to treat stablecoins as foundational financial infrastructure rather than speculative instruments.
This regulatory clarity is emerging as a prerequisite for institutional adoption. Payment giants and fintech firms are already positioning themselves accordingly. Stripe’s $1.1 billion acquisition of Bridge and Mastercard’s partnership with crypto payments firm BVNK signal that incumbents are preparing for a hybrid financial system built on both traditional and blockchain-based rails.
The report suggests that regulatory frameworks that support issuance, custody and interoperability will be decisive in determining whether stablecoins achieve mainstream penetration or remain fragmented across jurisdictions.
At the same time, the projected growth of stablecoins is intensifying concerns among traditional financial institutions about deposit outflows and competitive displacement.
Chainalysis frames the shift as a “dual imperative” for banks: either capture flows from increasingly crypto-native customers or risk losing them to on-chain ecosystems.
Stablecoins offer structural advantages over legacy payment systems, including near-instant settlement, 24/7 availability and lower transaction costs due to the elimination of intermediaries. These features are already driving adoption in remittances, business-to-business payments and corporate treasury operations.
As these efficiencies scale, they could erode key revenue streams for banks, particularly in payments and cross-border transfers. The prospect of stablecoins becoming the “default” transaction layer in commerce raises broader questions about the future role of banks in money movement and liquidity provision.
Chainalysis ultimately characterizes stablecoins as “essential plumbing” for the next generation of global finance, warning that institutions that fail to adapt risk being relegated to secondary roles on infrastructure controlled by others.
For regulators, the challenge will be to strike a balance between fostering innovation and managing systemic risk—particularly as stablecoins begin to intersect more directly with core banking functions.
With adoption accelerating, institutional investment rising and regulatory frameworks taking shape, the report suggests the transition to on-chain payment rails is no longer speculative. Instead, it is rapidly becoming a central battleground in the future of financial services.
