Policy Risk, Tariff Impact and the Price of CFO Uncertainty

PYMNTS Intelligence’s August 2025 Certainty Project surveyed 60 CFOs at U.S. middle market companies ($100 million to $1 billion in revenue) to gauge how macroeconomic forces and policy risk are reshaping business operations, pricing and performance. The latest read shows that price increases have not insulated margins, demand is cooling—especially for globally exposed firms—and regulatory and tariff uncertainty is fueling operational friction. What follows is a seven-chart data book with the clearest business critical takeaways for banking, payments and fintech leaders.

CFO Uncertainty

Global Exposure

CFOs whose companies source 30% or more of their inputs and supplies from abroad are far more likely to operate under high regulatory uncertainty. Six in 10 fall into the “high” bucket—four times the rate of firms that source 15% or less abroad. For lenders, payment providers and risk teams, the message is simple: Cross-border supply chains concentrate policy risk. They can also alter a client’s need for liquidity, hedging and flexible terms.

Margin Squeeze

Price hikes haven’t plugged the profit hole. Three-quarters of CFOs raised prices in the past year, yet six in 10 still reported declining profit margins. Margin erosion is nearly twice as likely among globally exposed firms (roughly 75%) as domestic heavy peers (38%). Payments and pricing teams should take note: Pushing through increases is no guarantee of protection when input costs and logistics volatility sit upstream.

Demand Slump

Macroeconomic pressure is cooling revenue pipelines. Nearly one in two CFOs report lower customer demand. Among globally exposed companies, reports of declines climb to roughly nine in 10. The drag is slightly more pronounced in B2B markets than consumer-facing ones, a risk factor for trade credit, receivables and working capital cycles.

Supplier Strain

Costs and reliability are moving in the wrong direction at the same time. CFOs with higher international supplier shares are almost twice as likely to report increases in supplier prices—93% of globally exposed firms cite cost increases. Financially weaker businesses are more likely to face both price hikes and reliability issues. This double hit complicates inventory financing, payment terms and service-level agreements with customers.

Tariff Skepticism

CFOs remain wary of protectionist policy. More than half say an “America First” trade stance would hurt the U.S. economy; concern rises to roughly two-thirds among goods producers and to 80% among firms heavily reliant on international suppliers. That skepticism implies a cautious stance on capital expenditure, supplier diversification and payments routing should tariffs broaden.

Regulatory Disruption

Uncertainty around rules is translating into real-world friction. Among firms that already report high regulatory uncertainty, 83% say it produced operational disruptions in the last 12 months, including added compliance spend, long-term planning difficulties and delayed decisions. For banks and FinTechs, that means more variability in onboarding timelines, fraud/risk controls and program governance.

Uncertainty Cost

The bill for uncertainty is easing but still meaningful. In August 2025, firms with high uncertainty estimate it cost them 6% of revenue over the past year, down from an early 2024 peak near 17%. Across the full sample, the estimated cost sits at approximately 3%. That decline is notable, but the remaining drag has clear implications for cash flow forecasting, credit appetite and investment pacing.