That rebound offers limited reassurance. The subindex remained below the neutral score of 50, while prices continued to influence major spending decisions.
Job Security
Job-loss fears rise even as layoff data remains relatively calm.
Workers entered October with heightened concerns about job security. The share of employed consumers who considered job loss at least somewhat likely rose from 22.4% in September to 28.5%.
The increase was sharpest among consumers living paycheck to paycheck. Among those living this financial lifestyle without issues paying bills, 30.7% worried about losing their jobs, up from 20.7%. Among those struggling to pay bills, the share climbed from 32.1% to 41.6%. Overall, 16.0% of workers said job loss was very or extremely likely, up 3.3 percentage points and the highest reading in the series.
Labor Market Security, meanwhile, fell 1.3 points to 64.4. Personal Job Security fell 3.8 points to 76.6, its lowest reading since the series began in October 2025, and Perceived Layoff Risk fell 3.4 points to 68.7, its largest one-month decline. Job Mobility improved 1.7 points to 48.6.
Available employment data offered a more measured picture. U.S. payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, while August job openings fell to 7.1 million and layoffs remained at 1.6 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Announced job cuts declined 18% in September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Household behavior also reflected growing caution. From August to October, the share of consumers living paycheck to paycheck without issues paying bills who paid down debt faster or avoided new debt because of job or income worries rose from 15.2% to 21.2%. The shift suggests employment concerns are influencing borrowing decisions even among households still covering their bills.
Economic Outlook and Spending
Economic expectations improve, but prices continue to shape spending.
The economic outlook improved in October after a weak September. For example, gasoline averaged $4.33 a gallon in September, the highest September average on record, then eased in early October as fieldwork began. The Macroeconomic and Buying Climate subindex rose 1.8 points to 46.8, with gains across all three dimensions: Short-Term Business Conditions, Long-Term Business Conditions and Buying Conditions. The subindex remained below the neutral score of 50.
Short-Term Business Conditions rose 2.6 points to 46.1, putting it back at its 13-month average of 45.6, and for Buying Conditions, 46.0, in line with its 13-month average of 45.9. The share of consumers expecting the national economy to improve over the next 12 months increased from 26.4% to 30.2%. Buying Conditions gained 1.3 points to 46.0. The share saying October was a good time to make a major household purchase rose from 22.8% to 25.5%.
The rebound was strongest among consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills. Their Short-Term Business Conditions score rose 4.4 points to 42.0, while Buying Conditions also gained 4.4 points, reaching 40.2. Both remain the lowest of the three groups. Those gains helped lift the overall subindex, but improved expectations didn’t erase affordability concerns.
In October, 20.0% of consumers said they’d delayed a major purchase in the previous 90 days, compared with 18.3% in August, and 11.1% said they’d canceled a major purchase, up from 9.6%. Consumers could choose more than one answer.
High prices remain the leading reason consumers are delaying major purchases.
Price was the leading reason consumers traded down, delayed or canceled a major purchase. Among those who held back, 34.9% named prices that were too high as their main reason, followed by waiting for a better deal or better timing (17.6%), prioritizing saving or debt payoff (16.4%), income uncertainty (15.4%) and financing costs (14.7%).
For merchants, a more favorable outlook doesn’t automatically translate into stronger spending. Promotions may appeal to shoppers who can wait, while lower-priced options may be more relevant to households facing tighter budgets. Waiting for a better deal or better timing was the main reason for 22.2% of consumers not living paycheck to paycheck who held back, compared with 13.5% of those living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills.
Debt Confidence and Financial Resilience
Debt confidence falls among consumers who had been managing their bills.
Financial pressure is increasingly visible among consumers still keeping up with their obligations. Among those living paycheck to paycheck without issues paying bills, the largest of the three groups at about four in 10 consumers, the share confident in managing current debt over the next 12 months fell from 71.2% in September to 61.1% in October, a decline of 10.1 percentage points. This was the lowest reading for this group since the series began, 4 percentage points less than the prior low of 65.1% in April.
Their Personal Financial Resilience score fell 2.3 points to 57.8, its lowest reading in the 13-month series. All five dimensions of the subindex declined for this group, including Savings Capacity, which fell 2.9 points to 54.7. Across all consumers, the savings squeeze September’s index flagged eased: 47.5% said their savings would last three months or less, down from 51.8% and the first decline in four months. This month, the pressure fell on households with some room in their budgets; consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills rose 2.0 percentage points to 42.8, still the lowest of the three groups.
Unexpected expenses add pressure to household finances.
Unexpected expenses may help explain the shift. From August to October, the share of consumers in this group who faced an unexpected expense of $1,200 or more in the previous 90 days rose from 27.1% to 32.5%. That 5.4 percentage point increase exceeded the change among consumers not living paycheck to paycheck, whose share rose from 23.0% to 25.2%, and those living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, whose share edged up from 33.6% to 34.2%.
For lenders, banks and FinTech providers, the findings highlight a group whose financial position may be more vulnerable than its current payment behavior suggests. A household can keep up with bills while becoming less confident about absorbing another shock. That distinction may help businesses assess demand for credit, installment payment products and cash flow tools.
Credit Card Repayments
Rising household costs have made it harder to pay credit card balances in full.
October’s new credit card measure offers another view of household financial strain. Overall, 20.0% of cardholders said they were paying balances in full less often than a year earlier, while 20.2% said they were doing so more often. The pattern varied by financial situation.
Among cardholders living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, 40.7% paid in full less often, compared with 24.0% who did so more often. Among those not living paycheck to paycheck, 4.5% paid in full less often, while 19.7% paid in full more often.
The reasons cardholders gave point primarily to household costs. Among those paying in full less often, 29.6% cited higher costs for regular expenses as the main reason to do so, and 27.5% said regular expenses exceeded income. Together, those reasons accounted for 57.1%. By comparison, 7.3% cited job loss or lower income. Another 13.2% said they were keeping more cash on hand, while 9.2% pointed to a large unexpected expense and 9.1% to interest or fees growing their balance.
The distinction matters because repayment behavior can change before a household experiences a job loss. When regular expenses absorb more income, paying a card balance in full becomes harder even when earnings remain intact. The survey doesn’t establish a causal link, but the responses align with findings on price sensitivity, unexpected expenses and declining debt confidence. For issuers, financial lifestyle shows where that pressure is concentrated in a way a credit score alone may not.
The card measure is a one-month snapshot, introduced in October with no prior reading for comparison. Still, alongside the other findings, it adds detail to the headline PCEI score: Consumer sentiment remained broadly steady while several groups reported growing pressure on the finances that support everyday spending and debt repayment.
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Methodology
The PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index (PCEI) measures U.S. consumer sentiment monthly on a 0-to-100 scale, with 50 representing neutral sentiment. It comprises 11 dimensions based on individual survey questions. Results are best read as a snapshot of where cardholders stand today rather than as a trend.
The dimensions combine into three subindexes: Personal Financial Resilience, which tracks financial conditions, debt management, savings and emergency readiness; Macroeconomic and Buying Climate, which measures expectations for business conditions and consumer buying conditions; and Labor Market Security, which covers job security, perceived layoff risk and job mobility.
The October survey was conducted Oct. 1–13 among 2,087 U.S. consumers, weighted to national benchmarks. Job security and layoff risk questions were answered by 1,332 employed consumers. Job Mobility included 1,464 respondents. Comparisons draw on September’s 2,098 respondents and August’s 2,235 respondents for repeated questions. The index series began in October 2025.
Index changes are calculated from unrounded scores, and reported shares are weighted. Financial lifestyle is self-reported: consumers who do not live paycheck to paycheck, those who live paycheck to paycheck but comfortably pay their bills, and those who live paycheck to paycheck and have difficulty paying their bills. September employment data became available during fieldwork, while September inflation data was released after the survey closed.
