Main Street SMB Confidence Rises While Cash Flow Strain Lingers

Drawn from the latest wave of PYMNTS Intelligence’s “SMB Growth Monitor,” this data book distills the seven metrics that matter most for banks, acquirers and FinTechs tracking Main Street’s financial health. Fielded June 2, 2025, to June 17, 2025, among 513 U.S.-based SMBs across industries and revenue tiers, the survey captures a sector both confident and constrained.

Headline optimism is at a record: 82% expect to be operating two years from now, with micro SMBs powering the jump to 75%. Yet costs still bite, while demand is the clearest tailwind, led by micros (36% point to stronger customer demand). Mid-sized firms uniquely flag hiring as an existential risk (26% cite an inability to hire the workers they need), while the construction and utilities industries stand out as a relative bright spot, with roughly two-thirds reporting improved health. Together, these signals frame where risk is rising, resilience is building and financial providers can lean in.

SMB Financial Health—Seven Stats That Matter

SMBs show record-high survival confidence.

Eighty-two percent of SMBs say they are very or extremely likely to be operating two years from now—the strongest outlook since our tracking began in 2022. This broad-based optimism sets the tone for risk and growth planning across the sector.

Micro SMBs led the surge

Confidence among the smallest firms jumped 7 percentage points since March, with 75% of micro SMBs now very/extremely confident in their survival over the next two years (up from 68% three months earlier). That rebound narrows, but does not erase, size-based gaps in resilience.

Financial health shows momentum, but is uneven.

A slim majority—54%—of SMBs report their business is in stronger financial shape than six months ago, though micro SMBs still show the weakest overall health. The general picture is improving, yet fragility persists at the small end of the market.

Rising costs for goods and services are the number one drag.

Thirty-four percent of all SMBs cite rising costs for goods and services as negatively impacting their financial health, with 14% calling it the single biggest factor. Pressures differ by size: Micro firms feel cash flow strain and late payments more acutely, while larger firms point to labor-related expenses and benefits.

Demand is the top tailwind for micro SMBs.

Thirty-six percent of micro SMBs say increased customer demand is improving their financial health—the most cited positive factor—with cost control and more effective marketing also lifting results. That mix underscores the importance of both topline and efficiency plays.

Hiring constraints are a mid-market risk.

Among mid-size SMBs, 26% list the inability to hire new employees as a key reason they might not survive the next two years, four times the rate of micro-SMBs and six times the rate of others. Labor availability, not just labor cost, is an existential issue for this cohort.

SMBs in the construction and utilities sector stand out from the rest.

Nearly 66% of firms in construction/utilities report stronger financial health than six months ago—more than 10 percentage points above the average—making the category a relative bright spot for lenders and payments providers.

Conclusion

SMB sentiment is the strongest we’ve recorded since we began measuring three years ago, but it’s a nuanced landscape. Micro businesses are driving the optimism rebound while still wrestling with cash flow friction and cost exposure; mid-market firms confront acute hiring constraints, and sector dynamics create clear pockets of outperformance. For banks, acquirers and FinTechs, the playbook is targeted: Marry demand-driven growth tools (marketing enablement, accounts receivable automation, faster settlement) with flexible working capital solutions that blunt labor and cost pressure shocks, and segment aggressively by size and vertical to capture the brightest opportunities while managing downside risk.