The specter of tariffs, whether threatened or enacted, continues to cast a long shadow across the United States economy. These levies impact the executive teams of middle-market companies and the wallets of everyday consumers. To shed light on these divergent experiences, this Data Book draws on insights from two recent PYMNTS Intelligence reports: one surveys 60 executives in U.S. middle-market companies with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion; the other is a comprehensive consumer survey capturing 2,381 complete responses from U.S. consumers. Together, these reports offer a dual perspective on the uncertainty, behavioral shifts and economic expectations driven by tariff policy.
While businesses grapple with disrupted supply chains and strategic pivots, consumers navigate rising prices and adjust spending habits. This Data Book explores the distinct, yet interconnected, narratives emerging from these two crucial segments of the economy, highlighting key findings on their attitudes, challenges and responses to the evolving tariff landscape.
The Impact of Tariffs on Businesses
The impact of tariff-driven uncertainty on middle-market firms, particularly those in the goods and retail sectors, has been profound, forcing strategic adjustments and eroding confidence.
Uncertainty Reaches New Highs
The share of middle-market companies in the goods and retail sectors operating under high uncertainty has tripled from 11% in March 2025 to 33% in April 2025. Conversely, the share reporting low uncertainty has dropped significantly in the past few months, falling from 45% in January to 29% in April. This indicates a rapid deterioration in the predictability of the business environment.
Supply Chain and Macroeconomics Drive Concerns
In April 2025, supply chain integrity (62%) and macroeconomic conditions (38%) emerged as the top two drivers of uncertainty and unpredictability for middle-market retail and goods firms. This marks a notable shift from February 2024, when customer demand behavior and competitive position were the primary drivers. Navigating supply chain uncertainty is crucial for maintaining product timelines, ensuring customer satisfaction and preserving margin integrity. Macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and shifts in interest rates, can quickly alter crucial factors such as supplier costs, material availability, and demand forecasts.
Tariffs Force Strategic Shifts and Short-Term Focus
All heads of product in retail and goods segments reported that tariffs have had at least some impact on their product development. One-third of product leaders at goods companies have specifically delayed, canceled or reconfigured their product development plans due to tariffs. Furthermore, 81% of middle-market heads of product in retail and goods agree that tariff-related disruptions have shifted their focus from long-term technology initiatives to short-term operational fixes. Many are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to adapt to these shifts.
Confidence Wanes as Costs Rise
Confidence among goods firms in managing tariff-related supply chain disruptions has collapsed, with just 5% of heads of product expressing high confidence in April 2025, a stark drop from 40% in prior months. Growing concerns about costs mirror this declining confidence. All heads of product in goods firms now agree that tariffs are driving up costs for reconfiguring supply chains and raw materials. This highlights the significant financial burden tariffs place on businesses managing complex operations.
The Impact of Tariffs on Consumers
Consumers, while often removed from the complexities of corporate supply chains, are directly impacted by tariffs through prices and availability, leading to skepticism and widespread changes in spending behavior.
Skepticism Prevails, Values Divide Attitudes
Knowledgeable consumers remain largely skeptical of tariffs, with negative sentiment (41%) nearly double the positive views (22%) as of April 2025. This skepticism increases with greater familiarity with policies. A significant divide exists based on consumer values. While 62% of “made in the U.S.A.” shoppers support tariffs, 64% of price-conscious (“low price”) consumers oppose them. Those prioritizing American-made goods are the only group to rate the positive aspects of tariffs higher than the negative ones.
Price Hikes Are Widely Expected
A substantial share of consumers expect tariffs to lead to higher prices, with six in 10 anticipating increases. Nearly half (49%) expect prices to rise at more than double the current inflation rate. Knowledgeable consumers, in particular, expect prices to increase by nearly 7%, significantly exceeding current inflation levels. This expectation is translating into concerns about direct tariff surcharges, which more than 1 in 2 consumers anticipate companies adding to their bills. This concern is particularly pronounced among price-sensitive shoppers (67%) compared to “made in the U.S.A.” shoppers (46%).
Consumers Actively Adjust Spending Habits
In response to anticipated tariff impacts, more than 80% of consumers are actively offsetting costs by changing their spending habits. On average, consumers have made 4.7 changes specifically to mitigate these impacts. Consumers living paycheck to paycheck who struggle to pay their monthly bills are making the most adjustments (5.7 changes on average), demonstrating the disproportionate impact of tariff costs on vulnerable populations. Common strategies include buying less overall, switching to more affordable brands and reducing spending on non-essential items. Generation Z stands out as the most adaptive generation, with nearly 93% making changes, despite also expressing a strong preference for American-made products.
Conclusion
The data reveals a landscape where tariff uncertainty significantly elevates operational challenges for businesses, particularly impacting supply chain management and forcing a tactical, short-term focus, while simultaneously eroding confidence and increasing costs. For consumers, the primary concern is the expectation of rising prices, leading to widespread adjustments in spending habits across demographics. However, sentiment and adaptation methods vary based on consumer values and financial situations. While businesses grapple with macro-level strategic shifts and cost pressures, consumers react directly to anticipated price increases, demonstrating the multi-faceted and complex effects of tariffs across the economy.
