Goldman Analysts: 4.1 Pct Unemployment Reachable By Year’s End

The country is tracking for a decline in the 6.2 percent unemployment rate to 4.1 percent by the end of 2021, Bloomberg reported on Monday (March 5).

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group said that as pandemic-related restrictions continue to lift, the U.S. will be poised for employment growth. In a report by Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and colleagues, pandemic aid and personal savings “should fuel very strong demand growth.” 

Forecasters at Goldman Sachs anticipate that job market activity will increase because “most workers who left the labor force still cite the pandemic as their reason, and will likely re-enter once life normalizes.”

Automation and digitization fueled by the pandemic have widened the gap between workers’ skills and the job market, which could dampen the recovery. The continuation of federal unemployment benefits could also reduce how fast the economy rebounds, the economists said, per Bloomberg.

The Goldman Sachs report comes after the February payrolls report released last week showed that the availability of jobs almost doubled what had been forecast. 

Economic recovery in the U.S. is tracking to surpass China, with the world economy expected to expand roughly 6 percent. The anticipated larger contribution to global growth by the U.S. instead of China would be the first since 2005. The U.S. economy went down 3.5 percent in 2020 and is expected to go up 7 percent in 2021. China grew 2.3 percent last year and is expected to grow 8 percent this year.

World Economic Forum (WEF) leaders said we are now in the Golden Age of remote work. A new global survey of 2,000 workers done by the WEF indicated that more companies and employees are comfortable with remote work and also prefer it.  

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its Employment Situation report that total nonfarm payroll employment went up by 379,000 in February. The majority of job gains were in the leisure and hospitality sectors, hard-hit by the pandemic. Employment dropped in state and local government education, construction and mining.