October 2026
The 2026 Certainty Project

Demand Opens the Checkbook: How CFOs Decide to Grow

CFOs see room to grow in an uncertain market, but opportunity alone doesn’t open the checkbook. Customer demand gives them the strongest reason to invest, while rising costs and financing pressures can keep expansion on hold. A new PYMNTS Intelligence survey of 60 middle-market CFOs reveals what gives finance leaders the confidence to act and what keeps them cautious.

Header image for the October 2026 edition of the PYMNTS Intelligence Certainty Project Report. PYMNTS Intelligence reports on customer demand and uncertainty. See what drives CFO investment decisions and what holds growth back.

The previous edition of the Certainty Project established that certainty moves capital. This month we ask a follow-up question: What signals do CFOs focus on before they decide to expand or pull back?

When it comes to greenlighting investment, customer demand takes center stage. More than half of CFOs (55%) name it as the single most important trigger, well ahead of recession risk or competitive considerations. The pattern shows up in firms’ current posture. About eight in 10 firms with improving demand describe themselves as expansionary, while none of those with worsening demand do.

The reasons to pull back are far less concentrated. Only about one-third of CFOs cite demand weakness as the most important factor, while cost and margin pressure, policy or recession risk, and financing constraints also loom large. That may help explain why opportunity does not necessarily translate into aggressive expansion.

These are just some of the findings in “Demand Opens the Checkbook: How CFOs Decide to Grow,” the latest installment of the PYMNTS Intelligence 2026 Certainty Project. The report is based on a survey of 60 CFOs at U.S. middle-market firms with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion, fielded in August 2026. It examines the market, demand and financing signals CFOs monitor when deciding whether to expand, hold or pull back on investment.

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    The Uncertainty Factor

    PYMNTS Intelligence defines “uncertainty” as corporate executives’ self-reported assessments of how unpredictable or unreliable financial, regulatory, market and operational conditions feel across their core operations and finances. These areas include accounts payable and receivable (AP and AR) and collections, cash and liquidity positions, macroeconomic conditions, consumer and customer demand, risk management, compliance and regulatory issues, supply chains, payments capabilities, exchange rates, and competitive positions.

    What CFOs Watch

    Expansion concentrates among firms with greater certainty and improving customer demand.

    Overall, the middle market appears relatively resilient. Nearly half (47%) of middle-market CFOs describe their current investment posture as expansionary, while just one in five are in defensive mode.

    That relatively steady overall picture masks sharp differences. More than three-quarters (77%) of low-uncertainty firms are in expansion mode, compared with just 13% of high-uncertainty firms. Customer demand draws an even clearer line: About eight in 10 firms with improving demand are expansionary, while none of those with worsening demand are. Both measures point in the same direction, with greater certainty and stronger demand closely associated with firms’ willingness to lean into investment.

    Customer demand tops the list of signals shaping CFO investment decisions. Asked to select as many as applied, 57% cite customer demand, followed by end-market demand (43%) and customer financial health (42%). Each matches or exceeds other major signals, including competitive intensity (42%), the cost of capital (40%) and recession risk (37%).

    When CFOs identify the single most important signal, the concentration is clear: Customer demand leads at 35%, and demand-chain factors together account for 53% of “most important” responses. Financing follows at 12%.

    Expansion and Pullback Follow Different Signals

    What CFOs monitor and what actually changes investment plans are not the same thing.

    The next question is which signals prompt firms to increase or pull back investment. Demand dominates the expansion side. More than half of CFOs (55%) name it as the single most important trigger to increase investment, far ahead of policy or recession risk at 19%. Pullback is more diffuse: Demand weakness leads at 33%, followed by cost and margin pressure (25%), policy or recession risk (23%) and financing pressure (17%). Competitive concerns account for just 2%.

    Expansion and pullback, in other words, are not mirror images. Demand dominates decisions to expand, while several different pressures often push firms to ramp down investment.

    The asymmetry becomes even clearer when CFOs name a single reason for changing course. Customer demand alone accounts for 35% of expansion triggers, while no single reason to pull back reaches even one in five firms. Instead, caution is spread across higher costs, financing pressure, recession risk, softer demand and policy uncertainty. Among firms with worsening demand, 38% point to higher input costs as their top reason to hold back, suggesting that demand weakness and cost pressure often reinforce each other.

    High-uncertainty firms are far more likely to say financing is holding back investment. Eight in 10 cite high cost of capital as an investment constraint, versus 41% for the low-uncertainty group. Another third of high-uncertainty firms name access to financing as an obstacle. Overall, more than nine in 10 high-uncertainty firms (93%) report one of these financing issues, more than double the rate seen among their low-uncertainty counterparts.

    Who Invests Through Market Softness

    Most firms see opportunity in market softness, and many are ready to act if they identify strong demand and have sufficient financial capacity.

    Half-full or half-empty? Firms respond to market softness in divergent ways, heavily influenced by certainty level. Close to half of low-uncertainty firms (45%) see a significant opportunity to invest and gain ground, compared with just 13% of medium-uncertainty and 7% of high-uncertainty firms. That said, six in 10 high-uncertainty firms see selective opportunity, compared with 33% that see little or none, highlighting that uncertainty does not always discourage expansion.

    Cautious optimism, rather than a more aggressive expansionary posture, still defines the outlook for most firms. While 87% of firms identify significant or selective opportunities from market softness, 60% of the overall sample say the same conditions also make them more cautious. Only 27% of firms see opportunity without added caution. Meanwhile, 13% of firms see few or no opportunities from market softness.

    Investing through uncertainty requires both opportunity and financial firepower. Asked what would make them invest despite uncertain conditions, CFOs put strong customer demand and a strong balance sheet at the top, each cited by 52%, with the chance to take market share from rivals following at 42%.

    Forward plans reinforce the demand split. Two-thirds of firms whose customer demand improved over the past year plan to increase investment over the next 12 months. Among those whose demand weakened, 56% plan to cut back. Firms with stable demand are more evenly divided: Four in 10 plan to ramp up, 45% to hold steady and 15% to reduce.

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    Methodology

    “Demand Opens the Checkbook: How CFOs Decide to Grow,” the latest installment of the 2026 Certainty Project, is based on a survey of 60 CFOs conducted in August 2026. The survey polled executives at U.S.-based companies with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion. The report examines the relationship between operating certainty, customer demand and investment decisions.

    About

    PYMNTS Intelligence logo
    PYMNTS Intelligence is a leading global data and analytics platform that uses proprietary data and methods to provide actionable insights on what’s now and what’s next in payments, commerce and the digital economy. Its team of data scientists includes leading economists, econometricians, survey experts, financial analysts and marketing scientists with deep experience in the application of data to the issues that define the future of the digital transformation of the global economy. This multilingual team has conducted original data collection and analysis in more than three dozen global markets for some of the world’s leading publicly traded and privately held firms.
    The PYMNTS Intelligence team that produced this report:
    Ignacio Marquez: Research Analyst
    Daniel Gallucci: Senior Writer
    Emilia Rizzalli: Research Analyst
    PYMNTS Intelligence is a leading global data and analytics platform that uses proprietary data and methods to provide actionable insights on what’s now and what’s next in payments, commerce and the digital economy. Its team of data scientists includes leading economists, econometricians, survey experts, financial analysts and marketing scientists with deep experience in the application of data to the issues that define the future of the digital transformation of the global economy. This multilingual team has conducted original data collection and analysis in more than three dozen global markets for some of the world’s leading publicly traded and privately held firms.
    The PYMNTS Intelligence team that produced this report:
    Ignacio Marquez: Research Analyst
    Daniel Gallucci: Senior Writer
    Emilia Rizzalli: Research Analyst

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