Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High

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Business forecasting is becoming more difficult as sources of risk continue to shift across markets. Last year, tariffs disrupted plans for prices, supply chains and demand. In March 2026, conflict and broader geopolitical stress introduced a new shock. The latest PYMNTS Intelligence data suggests a familiar outcome: business uncertainty remains high, especially for goods firms, and finance leaders are still trying to plan in markets that can change quickly.

While the nature of the shock has shifted, forecasting pressure remains elevated. The uncertainty level in March 2026 is close to the high point seen in earlier PYMNTS Intelligence research, with goods firms once again taking the hardest hit.

Why Business Forecasting Under Uncertainty Is So Challenging

Rising Uncertainty and Pressure on Goods Firms

The March 2026 sample of heads of payments shows that 27% of respondents say their firms face a high level of uncertainty, close to levels seen during earlier tariff-related disruptions. Goods firms stand out even more, with 47% reporting high uncertainty. The pattern suggests that when new shocks emerge, goods businesses are still the first to feel the impact, making business forecasting more difficult in volatile conditions.

Improving Outlook for Business Forecasting

Despite current pressure, most respondents expect conditions to improve. In March 2026, 72% of payment leaders said uncertainty would decline over the next 12 months. This is more optimistic than earlier CFO readings, suggesting that while business forecasting remains difficult, many firms see today’s volatility as temporary rather than structural.

Cost of Uncertainty for Some Firms Remains High

The latest data places the total financing cost of uncertainty at 2.9% of revenue over the past year. While this is lower than previous tariff-era estimates, the burden is uneven. Firms experiencing high uncertainty report costs of 6.2% of revenue, more than double the average. Goods firms also remain more exposed than services firms, reinforcing the uneven impact of volatility on business forecasting outcomes.

Conclusion

The takeaway is clear: business forecasting is increasingly shaped by recurring uncertainty rather than stable cycles. March 2026 brought a different shock than early 2025, but the effect looks much the same: forecasting gets harder, goods firms feel the hit first and firms facing the most pressure pay a steep price. The good news is that most respondents expect improvement over the next year. The harder truth is that finance leaders still need to plan for volatility, not for a clean return to normal.

The Certainty Project is a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive series.

About

PYMNTS Intelligence is a leading global data and analytics platform that uses proprietary data and methods to provide actionable insights on what’s now and what’s next in payments, commerce and the digital economy. Its team of data scientists include leading economists, econometricians, survey experts, financial analysts and marketing scientists with deep experience in the application of data to the issues that define the future of the digital transformation of the global economy. This multilingual team has conducted original data collection and analysis in more than three dozen global markets for some of the world’s leading publicly traded and privately held firms.

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