JPMorgan CEO: China and Ukraine War Are Economy’s Biggest Threats

When it comes to the biggest economic threats, Jamie Dimon is looking beyond U.S. borders.

“The thing I worry the most about is Ukraine,” the JPMorgan Chase CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Monday (March 6).

“It’s oil, gas, the leadership of the world, and our relationship with China — that is much more serious than the economic vibrations that we all have to deal with on a day-to-day basis.”

As for the U.S. economy, the head of America’s biggest bank said the country could still see a “soft landing” rather than a deep recession.

“A mild recession is possible, a harder recession is possible,” Dimon told Bloomberg. “I think there’s a good chance that inflation will come down, but not enough by the fourth quarter — the Fed may actually have to do more.”

Dimon added that while American consumers are “in great shape now,” that won’t last forever. His comments on the possibility of a recession follow similar remarks from big bank executives in recent weeks.

Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon said last month that he and most of the CEOs he speaks with expect that the economy will have a softer-than-expected landing, something Solomon attributed to resilience among U.S. consumers.

But Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo had a gloomier forecast for the U.S. economy in February, pointing to a tight labor market, a housing and manufacturing slowdown and ongoing high inflation.

Research by PYMNTS has shown that while inflation has slowed, consumers’ outlook has tended to stay on the glass-is-half-empty side. For example, surveys found that 78% of restaurant customers reported they were eating at home more often.

However, consumer grocery spending is affected too. PYMNTS’ report “Consumer Inflation Sentiment: Perception Is Reality,” for which we surveyed more than 2,100 consumers in December, shows that 69% of consumers have made changes to their grocery shopping lists in the past year due to rising prices. Nearly 60% of consumers have cut back on the quantities of items they are purchasing, while 35% have reduced the quality.

Meanwhile, a recent analysis by Morgan Stanley shows that Dimon’s bank — now valued at $410 billion — could be worth a landmark $1 trillion by 2030.

If that were to happen, JPMorgan would become a part of a handful of companies to hit the $1 trillion mark, joining Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco and Alphabet.