Economic uncertainty is supposed to make CFOs defensive. Today, it’s giving the strongest companies permission to attack.
New data in the October 2026 edition of “The 2026 Certainty Project” from PYMNTS Intelligence finds that 87% of CFOs see at least some opportunity in market softness, even as 60% say those same conditions make them more cautious about investing. That apparent contradiction points to a more consequential divide emerging across corporate America.
The question is no longer whether CFOs can spot opportunity in a weaker market. Nearly all of them can.
The question is which companies can afford to act on it.
The Next Downturn Could Make Strong Companies Even Stronger
The standard corporate playbook during uncertainty has traditionally been a straightforward one. Preserve cash, delay discretionary spending and wait for visibility to improve. That logic hasn’t disappeared. But it is becoming more selective.
PYMNTS Intelligence finds that strong customer demand is the most important reason CFOs would increase investment despite economic uncertainty. Fifty-two percent point to strong demand as a factor supporting investment.
But an equally revealing 52% cite a strong balance sheet.
Put those findings together and the investment equation changes. Demand tells CFOs where to invest. Financial strength determines whether they can. That creates an important asymmetry between companies entering the same economic environment. Two businesses may see identical opportunities to expand capacity, automate operations, acquire customers or introduce new products. The company with stronger liquidity, healthier margins and greater financing flexibility can move. Its weaker competitor may have to wait.
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In other words, economic softness does not necessarily level the playing field. Instead, it can tilt it further toward companies that entered the downturn strongest. After all, many of the investments companies defer during uncertain periods are precisely the investments that determine their competitive position when growth returns.
Read the report: Demand Opens the Checkbook: How CFOs Decide to Grow
The result is that balance-sheet strength starts functioning as more than insurance against a downturn. It becomes strategic dry powder.
That helps explain why the PYMNTS Intelligence findings shouldn’t simply be read as another indication that CFOs are cautiously optimistic. The more important signal is that caution itself may produce competitive openings.
If 60% of CFOs become more conservative while 87% can still identify opportunities, the companies capable of maintaining investment have fewer aggressive competitors chasing those opportunities. For financially strong businesses, other companies’ caution can become part of the investment thesis.
Projects that shorten payback periods, convert fixed costs into variable ones, release working capital or produce measurable operating leverage become easier to defend because they don’t merely promise growth. They increase the company’s capacity to keep investing through uncertainty.
That creates the possibility of a feedback loop: Financial strength creates the ability to invest, investment strengthens the business, and the resulting strength creates even greater capacity to invest the next time competitors retreat.
The guiding question for CFOs is no longer simply how much risk the company should avoid. It is how much competitive advantage the company can afford to buy while everyone else is avoiding it.
At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.
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